Gold gets a boost from this morning’s U.S. jobs data after dropping earlier Wednesday on speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year to combat inflation.
The private sector jobs numbers came in less than expected for June, per ADP’s Wednesday report. Employment grew by a seasonally adjusted 98,000, down from an unrevised 122,000 in May and below the forecasted 110,000. The lower than expected number gives hope to Fed doves.
The private payrolls report will be followed on Thursday by both weekly U.S. initial jobless claims data as well as the key U.S. monthly jobs report for June. The latter will come out a day earlier than usual because of the Independence Day holiday on Friday.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on CNBC Tuesday that demand for AI infrastructure is fueling inflation and that “if that continues, it may mean that we need higher interest rates to bring inflation back to target.” Investors will be monitoring comments from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on Wednesday at the annual central bankers’ meeting in Sintra, Portugal.
Gold also dropped on a stronger dollar, which made gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.
August gold futures fell 40 cents Tuesday to settle at $4,038.50 an ounce on Comex, and the front-month contract is down 1.4% so far this week. Bullion slid 12% in June after dropping 0.8% in May and losing 1% in April. It decreased 7% in the first half of 2026 after rallying 64% last year. The August contract is currently up $63.40 (+1.57%) an ounce to $4101.90 and the DG spot price is $4094.40.
U.S. financial markets will be closed Friday for Independence Day, and trading on Comex will post for Monday’s settlement.
U.S. job openings were much higher than expected in May and reached a new two-year high, according to a report released Tuesday from the Labor Department. The figure had been expected to drop in economists’ estimates.
Separately, investors remained focused on the peace talks between the U.S. and Iran and the standoff about potential tolls through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil shipments. Higher oil prices have spurred inflation since the war began.
Last week, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, came out with May data and showed the index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, reached the highest level since October 2023.
The Fed last month held interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, as expected, but signaled growing support for a rate hike in 2026. Warsh’s comments in Portugal will be closely followed for any perceived change on this position.
Over 70% of th investors tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool are betting on interest rates staying unchanged in July, though they see an increase as early as September. At the start of the year, before the war, the central bank had been expected to loosen monetary policy in 2026. But the Fed has kept interest rates unchanged this year after three previous rate cuts. Higher rates are typically bearish for gold, making it a less attractive investment than other assets.
Front-month silver futures rose 2.2% Tuesday to settle at $59.92 an ounce on Comex, and the September contract gained 0.4% in the first two days of the week The most-active contract touched a record above $115 in January. Silver declined 21% in June after gaining 2.5% in May and losing 1.2% in April. It lost 15% in the first half of 2026 after rising 141% last year. The September contract is currently up $0.763 (+1.27%) an ounce to $60.685 and the DG spot price is $60.45.
Spot palladium decreased 0.7% Tuesday to $1,218.50 an ounce and is down 0.2% this week. Palladium dropped 11% last month after losing 12% in May and rising 3.2% in April. It retreated 25% in the first half of 2026 after rising 74% last year. Currently, the DG spot price is up $21.10 an ounce to $1236.00.
Spot platinum retreated 1.7% Tuesday to $1,559.10 an ounce and is down 5% so far this week. Platinum tumbled 19% in June after dropping 3.2% in May and gaining 1.3% in April. Platinum slid 23% in the first half of 2026 after increasing 122% in 2025. The DG spot price is currently up $48.20 an ounce to $1612.00.
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