Gold inches up early Monday on renewed safe haven interest as the Iran war raged on. The yellow metal still getting resistance from a boosting dollar, and strong U.S. jobs data for March the reduced speculation that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates soon.
A strong dollar is typically bearish for the yellow metal, making it a more expensive investment for holders of other currencies. Similarly, high interest rates tend to weaken gold, making it a less attractive alternate investment.
But the dollar pared its advance after Axios reported that the U.S., Iran, and a group of regional mediators are discussion terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire. The report cited four U.S., Israeli and regional sources it didn’t identify other than to say they have knowledge of the talks. Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened Iran in an expletive-laden social media post, giving it a Tuesday deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping route vital to the oil and gas industry. Iran rejected the demand.
June gold futures rose 3.4% last week to settle at $4,679.70 an ounce on Comex, and the most-active contract slid 2.8% Thursday. U.S. financial markets were closed for the Good Friday holiday last week. Bullion slid 11% in March after climbing 11% in February and rising 9.3% in January. It rallied 64% last year. The June contract is currently up $20.70 (+0.44%) an ounce to $4700.40 and the DG spot price is $4671.10.
Separately, March U.S. jobs data, released Friday, soared past economists’ expectations, with nonfarm payrolls rising a seasonally adjusted 178,000 last month, a reversal from February’s 133,000 decline. Economists had expected 59,000. Some investors have speculated that the Fed might be forced into interest rate cuts this year if the labor market was weak.
Since the war began, most investors tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool now expect the Federal Reserve to keep U.S. interest rates unchanged this year, and some are now betting on a rate hike instead of the rate cut they were previously anticipating. Almost all the investors tracked by the tool are betting on rates staying unchanged at the next policy meeting in April. Most investors tracked by the tool aren’t betting on a rate cut before September 2027.
Fed policymakers last month kept interest rates unchanged again at 3.50% to 3.75%. The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged this year after three previous rate cuts. The central bank began raising interest rates in March 2022 to fight inflation, ultimately imposing increases of by 5.25 percentage points before beginning rate cuts in 2024.
In economic news this week, the minutes of last month’s Fed meeting are due out Wednesday, and the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, is due out Thursday with February data. The consumer price index, another inflation measure, is due out Friday with March data.
Front-month silver futures gained 4.5% last week to settle at $72.92 an ounce on Comex, though the May contract fell 4.2% Thursday. The most-active contract touched a record above $115 in January. Silver dropped 20% last month after gaining 19% in February and advancing 11% in January. It rose 141% last year. The May contract is currently down $0.109 (-0.15%) an ounce to $72.815 and the DG spot price is $72.41.
Spot palladium increased 8.3% last week to $1,515.00 an ounce after rising 0.5% Thursday. Palladium tumbled 17% in March after gaining 8.8% in February and advancing 2.4% in January. Palladium rose 74% last year. The current DG spot price is down $24.90 an ounce to $1487.50.
Spot platinum rose 6% last week to $1,994.70 an ounce and gained $1.80 Thursday. It declined 17% in March after advancing 15% in February and gaining 1.4% in January. Platinum increased 122% in 2025. Currently, the DG spot price is down $16.30 an ounce to $1971.90.
Disclaimer: This editorial has been prepared by Dillon Gage Metals for information and thought-provoking purposes only and does not purport to predict or forecast actual results. This editorial opinion is not to be construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding any particular security, commodity, or course of action. Opinions expressed herein cannot be attributable to Dillon Gage. Reasonable people may disagree about the events discussed or opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not come to fruition, results are likely to vary substantially. It is not a solicitation or advice to make any exchange in commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. No part of this editorial may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Dillon Gage Metals. Dillon Gage Metals shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this editorial. You should consult your advisers with respect to these areas. By posting this editorial, you acknowledge, understand, and accept this disclaimer.