Gold jumps Wednesday morning as investors sought safe-haven assets ahead of a key data release delayed by the U.S. government shutdown and the minutes of the October Federal Reserve policy meeting for signals on which way monetary policy will go in December.
Gold fluctuated amid fading expectations over the likelihood of a Fed rate cut next month and a decline in global equities over technology stock valuations. Equities were jittery in the previous session ahead of a highly anticipated earnings report from Nvidia Corp. on Wednesday While gold might typically be a hedge investment against stock market uncertainty, the drop in anticipation of a Fed rate cut likely weighed on gold, since it typically rises when rates are lower.
December gold futures fell 0.2% Tuesday to settle at $4,066.50 an ounce on Comex, and the front-month contract slid 0.7% in the first two days of the week. Bullion increased 3.2% last month after surging 10% in September, the most in six months, and adding 5% in August. It’s up 54% this year. The metal rose 27% in 2024, its biggest annual gain since 2010. The December contract is currently up $49.40 (+1.21%) an ounce to $4115.90 and the DG spot price is $4116.10.
The delayed September U.S. jobs report, which would have typically come out in early October, is now scheduled for release Thursday. Private data released by ADP on Tuesday showed that U.S. companies lost 2,500 jobs a week on average in the four weeks ended Nov. 1, suggesting that the labor market lost momentum late last month. The Fed has said it closely watches both the labor market and inflation when setting monetary policy.
October’s rate reduction to 3.75% to 4.00% was the second 25-basis point reduction in a row. The central bank began raising interest rates in March 2022 to fight inflation, ultimately imposing increases of by 5.25 percentage points before beginning rate cuts last year.
Investors are also awaiting the minutes of the October Fed policy meeting, scheduled for release Wednesday, for signals on policymakers’ thinking. A number of Fed officials have expressed skepticism in the past few weeks over the need for another interest rate cut in December.
Just under half of the investors tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool are betting that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in December, while the rest expect another 25 basis point cut. A week ago, almost 67% of investors were anticipating a cut next month. Lower interest rates are typically bullish for gold, making the yellow metal a more attractive investment.
March silver futures decreased 0.4% Tuesday to settle at $51.15 an ounce on Comex, though the rolling front month contract, which moved to March from December this week, is up 0.9% this week. Silver rose 3.3% in October after adding 15% in September, the biggest monthly rally in two and a half years, and climbing 11% in August. It’s up 73% this year after rising 21% in 2024. The March contract is currently up $1.169 (+2.29%) an ounce to $52.315 and the DG spot price is $51.88.
Spot palladium rose 0.9% Tuesday to $1,418.50 an ounce and is up 0.6% in the first two days of the week. Palladium rose 14% last month after rising 14% in September and declining 7.8% in August. Palladium is up 53% this year after dropping 17% in 2024. Currently, the DG spot price is down $8.20 an ounce to $1407.50.
Spot platinum gained 0.3% Tuesday to $1,549.10 an ounce but dropped 0.6% so far this week. It advanced 1% in October after gaining 15% in September and rising 5.9% in August. Platinum is up 70% in 2025 after losing 8.4% in 2024. The DG spot price is currently up $13.50 an ounce to $1565.50.
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