Gold rises early Monday after a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report last week eased expectations that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates this year.
The U.S. monthly jobs report for June missed economists’ estimates and were slower than the downwardly revised figure for May, according to Labor Department data released Thursday, just before the long holiday weekend. Investors see a weaker labor market as potentially limiting any interest rate increases from the Fed to slow inflation. Lower interest rates are bullish for gold, making it a more attractive alternate investment.
August gold futures rose 0.7% last week to settle at $4,125.70 an ounce on Comex, after the front-month contract rallied 1.1% Thursday. U.S. financial markets were closed Friday for Independence Day, and trading on Comex will post for Monday’s settlement. Bullion slid 12% in June after dropping 0.8% in May and losing 1% in April. It decreased 7% in the first half of 2026 after rallying 64% last year. The August contract is currently up $30.00 (+0.73%) an ounce to $4155.70 and the DG spot price is $4176.30.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 last month, missing economists’ consensus estimate of 115,000. The figure for may was revised down to 129,000, and it was slower than that. The report also showed that the labor force participation rate fell to the lowest level since March 2021, causing the official unemployment rate to drop.
Earlier last week, the private payrolls report from ADP came in at a lower-than-expected 98,000 for June. That was below the economists’ estimate of 110,000 and May’s 122,000 figure.
The Fed closely watches both inflation and jobs data when setting interest rates. The personal consumption expenditures price index for May reached the highest level since October 2023 when excluding volatile food and energy prices. It’s the Fed’s favorite inflation measure.
The Fed last month held interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, as expected, but signaled growing support for a rate hike in 2026. Minutes of that meeting are due out Wednesday and are likely to be closely parsed by market players.
Over 75% of investors tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool are betting on interest rates staying unchanged in July. While the figure has declined, over 55% still see an increase as early as September. At the start of the year, before the war, the central bank had been expected to loosen monetary policy in 2026. But the Fed has kept interest rates unchanged this year after three previous rate cuts.
Front-month silver futures rose 2.3% last week to settle at $61.06 an ounce on Comex, after the September contract gained 0.9% Thursday. The most-active contract touched a record above $115 in January. Silver declined 21% in June after gaining 2.5% in May and losing 1.2% in April. It lost 15% in the first half of 2026 after rising 141% last year. The September contract is currently up $1.086 (+1.78%) an ounce to $62.150 and the DG spot price is $62.46.
Spot palladium increased 4.4% last week to $1,274.50 an ounce after climbing 4% Thursday. Palladium dropped 11% last month after losing 12% in May and rising 3.2% in April. It retreated 25% in the first half of 2026 after rising 74% last year. Currently, the DG price is flat at $1276.50.
Spot platinum retreated 1.3% last week to $1,620.90 an ounce, but rose 1.6% Thursday. Platinum tumbled 19% in June after dropping 3.2% in May and gaining 1.3% in April. Platinum slid 23% in the first half of 2026 after increasing 122% in 2025. The DG spot price is currently up $23.80 an ounce to $1647.90.
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