Gold rose early Wednesday as investors bought the recent dip, and extended the rise on this morning’s muted inflation data which led to a weaker dollar. However, so far, prices are down 5.4% for the month of September.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose 0.3% last month after a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in July, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through August, PCE inflation advanced 2.6% after increasing by a downwardly revised 3.4% in July. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for increases of 0.3% for August and 3.7% for the annual number.
The personal consumption expenditures price index is the Fed’s favorite inflation measure. The PCE data will be followed by September jobs numbers including the private payrolls report from ADP on Wednesday and the closely watched U.S. monthly jobs report on Friday. The Fed closely watches both inflation and the labor market when setting monetary policy.
December gold futures rose 0.3% Tuesday to settle at $4,179.70 an ounce on Comex, though the front-month contract fell 3.3% in the first two days of the week. Bullion is down 6.7% this month after rising 9.1% in August and gaining 1.7% in July. It is down 3.7% so far this year after rallying 64% in 2025. The December contract is currently up $25.80 (+0.62%) an ounce to $4205.50 and the DG spot price is $4218.80.
The yield on the U.S. Treasury’s longest bond rose for a sixth day on Tuesday to the highest level since 2002, a move that would traditionally pressure bullion.
Speculation has been fluctuating about a possible addition Fed interest rate hike next month because of inflation related to the U.S. war in Iran. Yet oil prices fell Tuesday, easing those concerns, as supplies from the Middle East came in near pre-war levels as Saudi Arabia boosted flows through a critical pipeline. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have mounted as Tehran refused to soften conditions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy chokepoint to the Persian Gulf.
The higher oil prices also increased inflationary pressure on the Fed to further increase interest rates. Higher rates are considered bearish for precious metals. The Fed earlier this month raised interest rates for the first time in three years, increasing the benchmark rate to 3.75% to 4.00%, in large part because of inflation linked to high energy prices. The central bank indicated that another hike might be coming this year.
New York Fed President John Williams said Tuesday that one more rate increase “late this year” may be appropriate. Almost 65% of the investors tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool are now betting that the Fed will keep the same rates in October. That’s a flip from Tuesday when over 50% thought the Fed would raise interest rates by another 25 basis points.
Before this month’s rate hike, the Fed had kept interest rates unchanged this year after three previous rate cuts. The next Fed policy meeting is Oct. 28, six days before the U.S. midterm elections. The higher prices of goods are being seen as a pivotal issue in the election.
December silver futures decreased 0.9% Tuesday to settle at $61.15 an ounce on Comex, and the front-month contract fell 5.6% in the first two days of the week. The most-active contract touched a record above $115 in January. Silver is down 8.7% this month after climbing 16% in August and sliding 3.6% in July. It is down 13% so far this year after rising 141% in 2025. The December contract is currently up $0.137 (+0.22%) an ounce to $61.290 and the DG spot price is $61.37.
Spot palladium fell 0.8% Tuesday to $1,216.50 an ounce and is down 4.5% so far this week. Palladium is down 11% this month after rallying 5.7% in August and adding 5.8% in July. It is down 25% in 2026 after rising 74% last year. The DG spot price is currently up $16.80 an ounce to $1230.50.
Spot platinum lost 2.6% Tuesday to $1,692.40 an ounce and retreated 4.9% so far this week. Platinum is down 5.3% this month after increasing 7.5% in August and gaining 6.6% in July. Platinum is down 17% so far this yar after increasing 122% in 2025. The DG spot price is currently up $36.00 an ounce to $1724.00.
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