Gold slips as some geopolitical risk ebbs

Gold slips as some geopolitical risk ebbs

Gold slips early Monday as some geopolitical risk ebbs after Iran said its oil industry was operating normally following Israel’s strike on military targets over the weekend. The yellow metal fell $22 an ounce from last week’s record high before climbing its way back above $2740.

Sparing the oil industry reduced some of the geopolitical and economic risk that investors had feared. Gold dropped on the reduction in haven demand and profit taking following last week’s rally. Markets remained elevated, however, amid uncertainty over the neck-and-neck U.S. presidential election and expectations for additional Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Investors are awaiting further direction at the end of the week from the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, with September data. It will be followed Friday by the U.S. monthly employment report for October. The Fed has said it closely watches inflation and labor market data when setting rates.

Front-month gold futures rose 0.9% last week to settle at $2,754.60 an ounce on Comex after the most-active December contract increased 0.2% Friday. Bullion is up 3.6% so far this month after gaining 5.2% in September and advancing 2.2% in August. The metal is up 33% in 2024. The December contract is currently down $1.50 (-0.05%) an ounce to $2753.10 and the DG spot price is $2742.50.

U.S. consumer sentiment climbed to a six-month high in October, according to University of Michigan data released Friday. The move came after the Fed began its long-awaited interest rate cuts. The central bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points last month to 4.75% to 5.00%. It had kept them at 5.25% to 5.50% for a year after raising them by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022 to rein in inflation. 

Most investors tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool expect the Fed to cut rates again in November, with 97% anticipating a 25 basis point reduction. The rest are betting on the Fed holding rates steady. The central bank has two scheduled policy meetings left this year. Most investors tracked by the tool are expecting rates to end the year at 4.25% to 4.50%. 

Front-month silver futures rose 1.6% last week to $33.78 an ounce on Comex, though the December contract slipped 1.6 cent Friday. Silver is up 7.4% in October after rallying 7.9% in September and gaining 0.7% in August. It’s up 7.4% in 2024. The December contract is currently up $0.191 (+0.57%) an ounce to $33.970 and the DG spot price is $33.93.

Spot palladium gained 12% last week to $1,216.00 an ounce after rallying 3.9% Friday. Palladium is up 20% in October after gaining 3.2% in September and rising 3.2% in August. Palladium is up 8.9% this year. Currently, the DG spot price is up $20.80 an ounce to $1232.50.

Spot platinum advanced 1.4% last week to $1,032.90 an ounce after gaining 0.3% Friday. Platinum is up 5% in October after increasing 5.6% last month and sliding 5.2% in August. Platinum has advanced 3.6% in 2024. The current DG spot price is up $6.40 an ounce to $1039.10.

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