Gold slips briefly below $2400 on this morning’s inflation data but still aims for weekly gain. The yellow metal lost ground earlier Friday on profit taking after rallying in the previous session on a report showing that U.S. inflation cooled to the slowest pace in a year in June.
The producer price index (PPI), a measure of wholesale prices rose 0.2% in June per the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s more than the forecast of 0.1% and is now up 2.6% over the past year. The PPI is a gauge of prices that producers can get for their goods and services. The hotter-than-expected number counters other recent data that shows declining inflation, though economists and investors tend to put more weight on the consumer-focused data.
The U.S. consumer price index firmed bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, a move seen as bullish for gold, which becomes a more attractive alternate investment when rates go down. Investors are looking to Friday’s U.S. consumer sentiment data for further direction.
August gold futures rose 1.7% Thursday to settle at $2,421.00 an ounce on Comex, and the most-active contract increased 1% in the first four days of the week. Bullion fell 0.3% last month after gaining 1.9% in May and 2.9% in April. The metal rose 13% in 2023. The August contract is currently down $14.40 (-0.59%) an ounce to $2407.50 and the DG spot price is $2406.60.
So-called core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.1% from May, less than predicted by all but four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg and the smallest advance in three years. Including food and energy prices, monthly CPI dropped 0.1%. On an annual basis, core CPI rose 3.3%, the least since April 2021. The Fed has a 2% inflation target.
The CPI report also sent bond yields and the dollar tumbling Thursday, moves that are bullish for gold.
The Fed closely watches both inflation and labor market data when determining monetary policy. The June U.S. jobs report last week showed that the labor market softened last month.
Before the CPI report, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the central bank will make rate decisions “when and as” they are needed. He spoke during testimony before a House committee and in response to a question about the likelihood of a September rate cut in light of the upcoming U.S. presidential election cycle.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows 93.3% of the investors tracked are betting that the Fed will keep rates unchanged this month. But 96.2% expect the central bank to start cutting in September. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged again in June. The Fed has kept interest rates steady at 5.25% to 5.50% for about a year after raising them by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022 to rein in inflation.
September silver futures rose 2.7% Thursday to settle at $31.67 an ounce on Comex, though the front-month contract decreased 2 cents in the first four days of the week. Silver fell 2.9% last month after surging 14% in May and rising 7% in April. It ticked up 0.2% in 2023. The September contract is currently down $0.721 (-2.28%) an ounce to $30.950 and the DG spot price is $30.83,
Spot palladium rose 1.2% Thursday to $1,006.50 an ounce and slid 3.4% so far this week. Palladium rallied 8.1% last month after declining 5.1% in May and losing 5.9% in April. Palladium plummeted 38% last year. Currently, the DG spot price is down $22.00 an ounce to $983.00.
Spot platinum advanced 1.2% Thursday to $1,009.70 an ounce but declined 2.8% in the first four days of the week. Platinum fell 3.7% last month after advancing 10% in May and 3.1% in April. Platinum dropped 6.8% in 2023. The DG spot price is currently down $6.80 an ounce to $1001.60.
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