Gold sticking near the $4500 mark, as investors weighed reports of a possible U.S.-Iranian peace deal with inflationary concerns.
U.S. officials have indicated that a tentative agreement has been reached with Iran, but that President Donald Trump still needs to sign off on it. Gold prices have fallen on hawkish news about the war for the past few months and have rallied on signs of a peace agreement. But the conflict has driven up the cost of goods, raising speculation that the Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation.
The Fed’s favorite inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, on Thursday showed consumer prices were at their highest levels in almost three years, reaching an annual rate of 3.8% in April. The Fed’s target is 2%.
August gold futures rose 1.1% Thursday to settle at $4,532.40 an ounce on Comex. The most-active contract is down 0.5% so far this week. Bullion is down 2.1% so far this month after dropping 1% in April and sliding 11% in March. It rallied 64% last year. The August contract is currently up $27.20 (+0.60%) an ounce to $4559.60 and the DG spot price is $4532.50.
The core PCE index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.3% on an annual basis, in line with forecasts, while GDP for the first quarter came in at 1.6%, below the initial estimate of 2%, data showed Thursday. The data increased fears that the Fed will have to tighten monetary policy to support the economy. High interest rates are typically considered bearish for precious metals.
The Fed last month held interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, as expected, but policymakers were unusually divided, and the central bank has a new chair, Kevin Warsh.
Over 99% of investors tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool are betting on rates staying unchanged again in June. The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged this year after three previous rate cuts. The central bank began raising interest rates in March 2022 to fight inflation, ultimately imposing increases of by 5.25 percentage points before beginning rate cuts in 2024.
Front-month silver futures rose 1.4% Thursday to settle at $75.91 an ounce on Comex. The July contract is down 0.4% so far this week. The most-active contract touched a record above $115 in January. Silver is up 2.5% this month after losing 1.2% in April and dropping 20% in March. It rose 141% last year. The July contract is currently up $0.018 (+0.02%) an ounce to $75.930 and the DG spot price is $75.72.
Spot palladium lost 1.5% Thursday to $1,380.00 an ounce. It’s up 1% so far this week. Palladium is down 11% this month after rising 3.2% in April and tumbling 17% in March. Palladium rose 74% last year. Currently, the DG spot price is up $2.30 an ounce to $1388.00.
Spot platinum decreased $1.70 Thursday to $1,928.30 an ounce. It’s down 0.6% so far this week. It is down 3.2% this month after gaining 1.3% in April and declining 17% in March. Platinum increased 122% in 2025. The DG spot price is currently up $9.10 an ounce to $1939.40.
Disclaimer: This editorial has been prepared by Dillon Gage Metals for information and thought-provoking purposes only and does not purport to predict or forecast actual results. This editorial opinion is not to be construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding any particular security, commodity, or course of action. Opinions expressed herein cannot be attributable to Dillon Gage. Reasonable people may disagree about the events discussed or opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not come to fruition, results are likely to vary substantially. It is not a solicitation or advice to make any exchange in commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. No part of this editorial may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Dillon Gage Metals. Dillon Gage Metals shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this editorial. You should consult your advisers with respect to these areas. By posting this editorial, you acknowledge, understand, and accept this disclaimer.