Where do I start? There is so much going on here in the States and around the globe that affects the price of gold in a positive way. I can hear the Wall Street Gold traders cheering the price of gold on with all the news to fuel their long positions, including:
- A weaker dollar and treasury yields
- Strong inflows into the Gold ETF s overnight
- Weaker equities (Is the Trump rally over?)
- Russia talking tough
- Syrian issues
- North Korea threat
- Healthcare (when?)
- Tax reform (if?)
- The Democrats digging in their heels promising to fight tooth and nail on any bill or action proposed by The Trump administration.
- If the President and congress fail to act we are looking at a potential U.S. government shut down without a budget on April 28. Hundreds of thousands furloughed employees, closed national parks, lack of government services and you better hurry up and get your tax return in because if the government shuts down so does your refund.
So with all this going on do you still believe the economic data will justify a rate hike anytime soon?
In the end how will the equity market react to all this news? One might think for the time being this news will stop any rallies.
And let’s not forget the French election right around the corner. And whether you believe it or not that Russia had anything to do with our presidential election, just look at what’s going on in France. Putin loves Marine Le Pen, the “golden lady.” Russia began financing Ms. Le Pen just after she travelled to Moscow in March to boost her international profile and to show the world the they both agree that a EU without France would be a good thing.
We all heard President Trump complain about fake news and now Ms. Le Pen’s main opponent Emmanuel Macron is publically accusing Russia of trying to discredit him through Fake news stories distributed by Kremlin run media channels. It will be very interesting to see how this election pans out. As I reported before, Ms. Le Pen said and still believes France is better off on their own without the EU. If France follows the UK and leaves, this will have a profound effect on the price of gold, that’s why we call her the “golden lady”.
I expect the gold rally to continue at a slow and steady pace. The price action could escalate in the event Kim Jong-Un decides to fire a missile on Saturday to celebrate their national holiday honoring their founder. Reuters has reported that North Korea might also be planning another nuclear test, its sixth, and if the U.S. retaliates, Kim Jong-Un threatens us with a nuclear attack.
As I said in the beginning of this report, there are a lot of things going on that can and will have a positive effect on the price of gold. The question remains when and how much. I cannot find any news except more rate hikes that can push gold in the opposite direction. We will just have to wait and see.
Have a wonderful Wednesday.
Disclaimer: This editorial has been prepared by Walter Pehowich of Dillon Gage Metals. This document is for information and thought-provoking purposes only and does not purport to predict or forecast actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security, commodity or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this editorial only and are subject to change without notice and cannot be attributable to Dillon Gage. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not come to fruition, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No part of this editorial may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Dillon Gage Metals. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the opinions provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Dillon Gage Metals shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this editorial. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By posting this editorial, you acknowledge, understand and accept this disclaimer.