By Peter Aan.
Metals are generally lower this morning, with Gold leading the way south, while Palladium tries to hang tough near yesterday’s close. Here’s what I see now:
Gold has penetrated that 1120.50 support level (December contract) that I discussed Wednesday. Now we are primed to move towards the more important level at the September low of 1097.70. If that level does not hold, we could see movement towards the critical low from August at 1073.70. That is the lowest gold price since early 2010. The big picture on Gold shows that we have been ratcheting down over recent years, with spurts of falling prices followed by rally attempts that fail to last more than 2-4 months. I continue to look for lower prices.
Silver seems to be taking a breath after the steep fall on Wednesday. I continue to look for movement towards the September low of 14.240 (December). After that we have the more important low made in late August at 13.950. You have to go back to 2009 to find prices lower than that.
Platinum fell further yesterday, then rallied into last night’s session, but that rally could not be sustained. It seems likely that we will see new lows in this market, probably before the week is out.
Palladium started a selloff on Wednesday, but buying pressure came in yesterday, lifting the market fairly close to recent highs. We are in the lower part of today’s range as I write this, so we could be making another attempt at lower prices. The first hint of a top formation would be a close below 651.00 (December), and a close below 644.00 would be a more significant signal. As I said on Wednesday, though, any pullback in a market this strong should be considered suspect.
Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.