Several Factors Weigh On Silver and Gold

Gold and silver moved lower yesterday with several factors weighing heavily as we move towards the lower end of the recent trading range. Here are the factors, in no particular order: silver’s failure to hold $16.00 was disappointing for the longs and brought speculative sellers back to the table, the situation in Greece appears a bit calmer as headlines would indicate progress is being made over debt repayment, and the USD moved higher as did rates with the yield on the 10-year bond again above 2.40 percent. The good news for our corner of the market is that physical demand picked up sharply on the dip as it continues to do, but the bad news may be that the bottom is not far off and a rally from here means demand will slow down as we move towards the middle or upper end of the trading range.

In a bit of a surprise yesterday, Fed Governor Powell said two rate hikes this year remain a possibility. If hawkish comments like this continue during July and August, the likelihood is the USD will strengthen and, during a period where many market participants are on vacation, gold and silver could be vulnerable to spikes lower as speculators increase short positions during a period where liquidity is not great. In the short term, I would expect the market to test $1,155.00 and $15.40 where I expect it to hold, at least initially. Resistance levels are not far away and gold should face plenty from $1,185.00 through $1,195.00 while silver can expect resistance from $16.05 through $16.15 and again as it approaches $16.50.