Watching The Price of Gold

Why you need to watch the price of gold with one eye and all the other markets with the other.

Can someone explain to me why the media and government officials stopped talking about the United States debt. At the time of this report, the US Debt is a staggering 19 trillion dollars. That’s $58,000 for each individual in this county. And the Government keeps spending a trillion dollars a year more than it takes in. Is anyone concerned yet, especially with the (I’ll be nice) folks running for president? Is that the best we can do?

Look at these numbers: Every day 10,000 baby boomers are retiring and are expecting to cash in on all the entitlement programs available. One third of them have no savings and will have to rely totally on Social Security. Currently there are 47 million Americans on food stamps. People are living longer. Going forward how can we pay for these entitlements?

In an election year I don t expect you will hear anything about entitlements. For each politician running for office, this topic is suicide and sure to destroy any chance of being elected. So we forget the debt and listen to the presidential candidates trade insults each day. That’s a sure plan for economic disaster.

As a gold trader, I need to understand how all this madness will turn into higher gold prices. I have a lot of theories and will share some of the ones that stick
out in my mind for the short term investment. Let’s look at the landscape now as I see it and have reported in the past.

Gold is virtually locked in a trading range between $1,075 and $1,095. In the last week and a half, buying in the gold ETFs has increased each day. Wall Street gold traders still sitting with short positions believing the Fed governors’ story that more rate hikes are in the cards. I still believe it’s one and done. I see no data to support another rate hike any time soon.

So we have a stalemate.

The longer gold stays in a trading range the more likely it will have a spring effect (or as they say) I expect a short covering rally.

Now let’s look at something I’ve been thinking about for a while. Let’s look at the stock market. Investors are highly leveraged and the volumes are low indicating to me that a sustained rally is out of the cards. Just the opposite I expect will occur. Lower earnings and continued lower oil prices should continue the Dow’s decline.

So here’s my take on the gold market short term. We still see central banks buying gold. Is there something they know that we don’t? I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Fed live up to their promise and raise rates (as some of the Wall Street traders predict) and crush gold only to turn around and buy it cheaper to support our currency. But the downside is, higher rates which will cost us more to finance the country’s debt. So the Fed’s hands are so tied up there is no escape. Look at all the world countries that have now turned sellers of our debt. What does that tell you?

Overall the government is in a sink hole with no rope to save itself. So going forward, I expect a weaker dollar against major currencies and gold to be the investment choice as our government has no alternative but to buy the metal. And eventually the retail investor will catch on, too.

In the meantime, I put my ear to the ground awaiting to hear the roaring rally on the gold train a comin’.

Have a wonderful Wednesday.

Disclaimer: This editorial has been prepared by Walter Pehowich of Dillon Gage Metals. This document is for information and thought-provoking purposes only and does not purport to predict or forecast actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security, commodity or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this editorial only and are subject to change without notice and cannot be attributable to Dillon Gage. Reasonable people may disagree about the opinions expressed herein. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not come to fruition, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate its ability to invest for a long term especially during periods of a market downturn. No part of this editorial may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Dillon Gage Metals. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the opinions provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. Dillon Gage Metals shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this editorial. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas. By posting this editorial, you acknowledge, understand and accept this disclaimer.