Gold Continues Steering the Ship

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Gold continues to be the captain of the ship as precious metals remain stuck in their recent trading ranges. As gold continues to pivot around $1,200.00 we have seen physical demand pick up every day this week on the dips while speculative and perhaps producer selling emerges on the rallies. Economic data has been mixed all week as have comments from FOMC members, which has only added to the directionless tone of our market. The headline story for today as we already begin thinking of what our market will do next week is the big sell-off in equities, which is being fueled by concerns over the Greek debt situation (will it remain in the EU) and regulatory concerns in the Chinese market which will bring greater regulatory oversight.

On the positive side for gold, we have crude oil making a new high for 2015 yesterday, interest rates as witnessed by the 10-year bond remain very low and the USD has backed off over the second half of the week. This morning’s much anticipated reports on the Consumer Price Index and Leading Economic Indicators followed the trend and were mixed as compared to economic consensus, but perhaps ever so slightly supportive of precious metals. As the U.S. equities slide is continuing as I finish today’s commentary, it will be interesting to see if traders move into gold and it can challenge the 100-day moving average at $1,212.25.

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Have a good weekend,

Roy

Gold At a Point of Equilibrium?

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Roy Friedman is off today, so our insights come from Peter Aan, a Senior Dillon Gage Metals Trader.

Gold is trading today inside yesterday’s range, but at mid-morning is near the top of its range. Stepping back a bit from the chart, we see a market at a point of equilibrium – well below the high from April 6 at 1224.50 (June contract), but finding buyers well above the recent support at the March 31 low of 1178.20. Look for a penetration of Tuesday’s range (1201.3 to 1183.5) to be the first indication of direction.

Silver is also inside Tuesday’s range so far today, but its chart pattern is weaker than gold’s. Moderately oversold, this market could begin a test of the April 10 high of 16.650 (May contract) if Tuesday’s high of 16.340 is taken out.

The Platinum chart resembles the gold chart. A penetration of Tuesday’s high of 1160.90 (July contract) could set the stage for movement towards the April 6 high of 1188.20 and a penetration of Tuesday’s low of 1141.20 could encourage a move towards the March 30 low of 1114.70.

Palladium shows yet another inside day so far. Like the others, yesterday’s range is the key – 770.75 to 755.00 in the June contract. The nearest resistance level of note is the recent high of 788.00 and the nearest support level is 751.60 from April 8.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

This Week’s Selloff Harder on Silver

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Precious metals have followed the course this week and have spent Monday through Thursday moving lower as the USD has strengthened. While the FOMC minutes were a bit more hawkish than expected, with a June rate hike still on the table, it is important to remember those discussions took place three weeks ago and the economic data since the March meeting has been very weak. The selloff this week has been harder on silver than gold and with silver’s move lower yesterday, the gold silver ratio is pushing 74 which is a level that has recently indicated silver is about to rally and outperform gold with the ratio moving back towards the upper 60s.

This morning finds all four precious metals sharply higher, with gold back above $1,200.00 despite the USD strength and crude weakness although it remains above $50.00. Physical demand, while not great, continues to be just good enough as the short sellers were not able to push gold and silver below $1,190.00 and $16.00. This morning’s rally has the feeling of short sellers covering and locking in a profit before the weekend, but a close above $1,200.00 and $16.50 will be a victory of sorts for the market and should bring a test of $1,225.00 and $17.00 next week.

Have a good weekend,

Roy

Gold Dips Yesterday With Stronger USD

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Despite the continued run higher in crude oil yesterday, which broke above $54.00, gold and company continue to be most heavily influenced by the USD. Following the weak employment report on Friday, precious metals spiked higher as the USD weakened with the Euro trading above 1.10 as gold took a run at $1,225.00. By the close yesterday, the USD had regained much of the recent loss and gold was testing support as it closed in on the 50-day moving average at $1,205.50. Silver was unable to hold above $17.00 and will now look to hold support on either side of $16.60 where the 50- and 100-day averages currently reside. Following recent dovish comments by several FOMC members, it is difficult to see a rate hike in June, which should lend support to our market.

At this point the focus likely shifts to economic data that may or may not support a hike in September. Yesterday, Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota made a case for rate hikes not beginning until the second half of 2016 with a goal of the Federal Funds rate not reaching 2.00 percent until the end of 2017. While he is likely to be out voted by his peers and rates will move higher sooner than that, his comments could be indicative that the FOMC is growing increasingly concerned about the U.S. economy. We will get a better handle on the FOMC’s views later today when the minutes from last month’s meeting are released. This morning is off to a quiet start with all four metals probing lower on light volume.

Weak Jobs Report Impacts Interest Rate Hike Expectations

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For the sake of anyone who missed it on Friday, the March employment report was much weaker than expected as the Labor Department report showed just 126,000 new jobs were created against the economic consensus expectation of 245,000. On top of this, the two previous months which showed robust jobs growth had those figures sharply lowered in revisions contained within Friday’s data. Expectations for a rate hike by the FOMC in June are further diminished on the back of this very weak report as policy makers are unlikely to raise rates, while job growth at the very least cannot be counted on to support economic expansion.

This morning, New York Fed President Dudley sounded very cautious when asked about the timing of a rate hike as he said the employment report, weak retail sales and weak manufacturing data have been a surprise. The reaction to the report as expected has been a weaker USD as the Euro is back above 1.10 and lower interest rates as the bond rally has brought the yield on the 10-year bond down to 1.85 percent. As a result, all four precious metals opened sharply higher when trading resumed yesterday and have extended those gains. With gold and silver currently at $1,220.00 and $17.10 both are trading above their 10, 50 and 100 day moving averages.

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Gold Kicks Off Q2 in the Precious Metals Driver’s Seat

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Precious metals begin Q2 with gold in the driver’s seat as the tug of war continues between gold holding above $1,200.00 and running higher or falling below $1,150.00 and potentially testing $1,050.00. As we continue to look for the direction the market will take, U.S. economic data remains mixed which only adds to the choppy tone. The FOMC rate hike timetable remains uncertain which adds to the choppy market and the other major markets such as U.S. equities (choppy and volatile), crude oil (range trading between $40.00 and $50.00), and bond yields (range bound) are not providing the insight precious metals participants are looking for. Therefore, volume has been decreasing as many have taken a wait-and-see attitude. Through all of this the USD has rallied sharply in Q1 with the occasional reversal. I would keep a close eye on the USD as a move below 1.05 Euro (gold likely lower) or above 1.10 Euro (gold likely higher) will be the catalyst for our next move.

Hawkish comments by Fed members this week, intimating that a rate hike in June is still a possibility, have weighed on gold and company as the USD moved higher, but volume has been light and there was just enough physical demand at lower levels to offset the speculative selling as witnessed by silver holding $16.50, which is the current intra-day low. This morning has brought us another weak U.S. economic report and, as expected, our markets are now in rally mode. The ADP Employment Report showed that 189,000 new jobs were added last month by private employers, this figure badly missed the consensus expectation of 225,000. Perhaps more concerning was the fact that it was the lowest job creation figure since January of 2014. As I finish today’s commentary, gold is challenging $1,200.00 and it feels like it will break through to again challenge resistance at $1,210.50 (100-day average) and $1,213.50 (50-day average).

My next commentary will be on Monday as Dillon Gage will be closed on Friday in observance of Easter Friday and Passover.

Roy

IDS of Delaware Approved by ICE

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Dillon Gage’s independent subsidiary, International Depository Services (IDS) of Delaware, has been approved as a depository by the Intercontinental Exchange Futures U.S. (NYSE:ICE). ICE’s futures exchanges feature global commodity and financial markets, with a focus on reducing risks and other capital efficiencies.

The approval covers all four current precious metals contracts offered by ICE Futures U.S., including:

– 100 oz Gold (ZG)
– Kilo Gold bars (YG)
– 1000 oz Silver bars (YI)
– 5000 oz Silver (5 x 1000 oz bars)(ZI)

Read the complete press release here.

Precious Metals on Defense this A.M.

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Following a weak close on Friday, trading resumed yesterday with light physical demand through the Asia Pacific region, which may have sent some of the recent longs looking for the exit sign as prices moved lower. This morning finds all four precious metals on the defensive as a stronger USD, calmer tone in the Middle East, lower crude oil market and a big rally in U.S. equities weigh on our market. In another sign of a U.S. economy which may not be ready to support a rate hike, consumer spending in February missed the mark as household savings soared to a two-year high. While this data was certainly impacted by winter weather, I believe it further supports a rate hike no sooner than September.

As our market is now probing the lower end of the recent range with gold and silver failing to hold $1,200.00 and $17.00, we can look for support in gold at the 10-day average at $1,183.50. Silver may hold the key here as the 10-, 50- and 100-day averages are fall within 22 cents. Initial support should be seen at $16.76 which is the 50-day average, followed by $16.61 which is the 10-day average, and finally $16.54 which is the 100-day average. Physical demand should pick up sharply as we approach $16.50, but a break below that level will likely empower the short sellers.

Could Gold’s Rally Have Run Its Course?

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Roy Friedman is off today, so our insights come from Peter Aan, a Senior Dillon Gage Metals Trader.

The strong rally in Gold in the first part of the week met resistance just under the upper Bollinger Band and the March 2nd high, giving us a mid-range close on Thursday, and trading lower in early trading today. A close today below Thursday’s low of 1194.8 in the June contract would be the first concrete sign that the rally may have run its course.

Silver had a more impressive rally, taking out minor resistance formed in late February and piercing the upper Bollinger Band. It’s easing back this morning, and a close today below Thursday’s low of 16.91 in the May contract would signal a possible short-term trend change.

Platinum’s rally was not as strong as Gold or Silver, and it is struggling this morning. A failure to close above last week’s high of 1145.7 (July contract) would hint that movement back down to the recent low of 1088.8 might be forthcoming.

Palladium didn’t get the memo about the rally, and today has fallen to the lowest level in several months. The next support level is at the October low of 729.95, with subsequent levels below 700.00

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

USD Weakness in Europe Boosts Gold

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Gold and silver traded on below average volume Monday and Tuesday as unconvincing probes higher following Friday’s big rally were sold by recent speculative buyers who locked in profits. There have also been reports of producer selling in front of $1,200.00 gold as we approach month end and the end of the first quarter of 2015. Following a continuation of USD weakness in Europe this morning, with the Euro now testing 110.00 after being at 105.00 last week, gold is again testing $1,200.00 while silver trades above $17.00.

This morning finds U.S. economic data again missing the target as witnessed by a very weak report on Durable Goods Orders which fell for the fifth time in the last six months. On the back of this news, the yield on the U.S. 10-year bond has fallen to 1.86 percent as bond traders appear to be less concerned with a rate hike by the FOMC any time soon which should support gold and silver. Crude oil moving up and a U.S. equity market which again appears to be top heavy should also lend support. Technical trading continues to dominate our market as USD movement on the back of daily economic releases set the tone for the market. Support in gold at $1,185.00 and $16.85 in silver appears to be strong, but if the rally does not continue in the coming days expect the downside to again be probed. If gold breaks $1,200.00, we can expect resistance at the 100-day average at $1,208.75 and the 50-day average at $1,222.50. Silver is trading above its 10-,50- and 100-day averages, but it has surprised me by not taking a look at $17.40 – $17.50.

FOMC Report Continues to Impact Precious Metal

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Precious metals continued to rally throughout the day on Friday as the USD weakened and crude oil rallied. The dovish FOMC report continues to impact our market as speculative short positions were covered before the weekend at the same time as now longs were entering the market. Physical demand was steady at the higher price points with silver leading the charge higher. If you believe like I do that the U.S. economy is still not out of the woods and remains on shaky legs despite the growth in payrolls and drop in unemployment rate, then you also suspect that the USD will continue to weaken through the spring and perhaps longer. The weakening USD will of course support gold and silver and just perhaps we will look back and say the recent dips below $1,150.00 gold and $15.50 silver were indeed buying opportunities. Slow and steady are just not the way for silver and the move I talked about in Friday’s commentary, calling for a run into the spread between the 50 and 100-day moving averages, happened all in one day as silver rallied over 80 cents.

Barring any geo-political news, the direction of all markets appear to be tied to the USD’s intra-day reaction to U.S. economic data. In the short term, gold support should be expected from $1,175.00 through $1,165.00. A break below $1,1650.00 likely means the USD is again in rally mode and sub-$1,150.00 can be expected. Gold is likely to face resistance as we approach $1,200.00 from producer selling, but a break above $1,200.00 should see us testing resistance between $1,225.00 through $1,240.00. Silver support should be strong as we approach $16.50 while a break above $17.00 should bring us a look at $17.40 – $17.50.

Precious Metals Rally Despite FOMC Statement

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Despite the FOMC removing “patient” from the policy statement on Wednesday afternoon, the tone of the statement and Chair Yellen’s subsequent press conference clearly had a more dovish tone than the markets were expecting as witnessed by the big rally that ensued in most markets. As the policy statement was being read, the USD weakened sharply Wednesday afternoon, rallied yesterday and is weaker again this morning as its direction sets the course for gold and silver. While there remains a possibility of a 25 basis point rate hike at any time now, most commentators see the hike coming in August. As Chair Yellen and the FOMC would like to see the unemployment rate fall further while the inflation rate stabilizes at higher levels, I do not think a rate hike will come before the fourth quarter and I am still not convinced we will see one this year. Continue reading →

Gold and Silver Probe Lower Prior to FOMC Statement

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Ahead of the FOMC decision this afternoon, gold and silver continue to probe lower as witnessed by gold trading down to a four-month low yesterday before bouncing as we continue to trade around $1,150.00 and $15.50. Platinum and palladium continue to move sharply lower as investor and industrial demand highlighted by weak imports from China weigh heavily. Platinum, having failed to hold $1,100.00, is trading at $1,090.00 this morning which is a level not seen since 2009. Continue reading →

FOMC Week Begins

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Welcome to FOMC week. The two-day meeting concludes on Wednesday afternoon with Chair Yellen scheduled to hold a press conference at 2:30pm EST. All markets will be waiting for any hint on a policy change that would indicate the much talked about rates hike(s) are set to begin.  The tone of her statement and answers to questions will be critical as a dovish nature with words like “patient” continuing to be used would indicate the FOMC may be concerned with the recent weak economic data and a rate hike could be pushed back to the fall or perhaps not at all this year.  Such an indication would weaken the USD and likely bring a big rally to our market as speculative short positions, which continue to grow ,would be covered while fresh buying is being done.  A “hawkish”  tone and the removal of “patient” would signal that a rate hike in June or perhaps August is likely which will pressure our market as the USD will likely continue strengthening.

Continue reading →

Crude Prices Could Impact Precious Metals – Again

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As precious metals head for the finish line this week, gold and silver are currently trading above $1,150.00 and $15.50 which may be a victory of sorts considering all the negative factors currently weighing on precious metals. The USD has taken a bit of a break from its “take no prisoners” rally which has helped as physical demand remains for the moment strong enough to offset speculative selling. The next headline we may have to deal with (and it could come today) is from crude oil which is once again under very heavy pressure. Crude is down 2 percent this morning and down 7 percent for the week as it currently sits on either side of $46.00. Extreme U.S. stock market volatility has returned which may support gold if U.S. equities are pushed lower and capital rotates back to our market. Continue reading →

Precious Metals Reacting to Strong USD

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Precious metals and all financial markets continue reacting to the two major economic headlines which are: the strength of the USD and when will the FOMC raise interest rates. The USD has moved higher by leaps over the past two weeks and now sits at 11 year highs. On modest volume, gold and silver continue probing lower as: physical demand, which has picked up, is unable to offset speculative selling, the ETF market experiences liquidations and crude oil saw a drop of over 1 percent yesterday, which added pressure. Platinum and palladium were hit a bit harder as platinum has fallen to 5+ year lows and palladium has failed to hold $800.00.

Continue reading →

Gold and Silver Enter New Lower Range

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Following Friday’s big sell-off on the back of the U.S. jobs report, trading resumed yesterday with a bit of short covering and physical demand bringing us a test of $1,175.00 and $16.00 where selling reemerged. With gold and silver entering a new lower trading range, I would expect the “shorts” to keep the pressure on unless we get an unexpected headline. A test of $1,150.00 gold and sub-$15.50 silver, where physical demand should be significant, is likely to spur on a short covering rally. Adding to negative market sentiment we have platinum trading at multi-year lows as it hovers just above $1,150.00.

Continue reading →

Gold and Silver Drifted Lower This Week

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Monday through Thursday saw gold and silver mostly drift lower despite the occasional bounce. Daily trading ranges and overall volume have been below average as many market participants looked elsewhere for a market that had greater intra-day and short term volatility like the FX market. This morning’s release of the February Non-Farm Payroll report is a game changer and has broken precious metals out of the recent range to lower levels as gold and silver have already tested $1,175.00 and $15.75. Employers added 295,000 new jobs in February which far exceeded the estimate of 240,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 5.50 percent, which is the lowest it has been since May of 2008.

Continue reading →

Technical Levels Dominate Precious Metals

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Precious metals continue to be dominated by technical levels as discussed on Monday. Without any new geopolitical news, gold and silver have: probed lower, held, bounced and, as witnessed by this morning‘s early levels, are beginning to probe lower again. Continue reading →

Market Insights – Precious Metals Closed Week Steady

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Despite the USD continuing to rally throughout much of last week, precious metals had a steady close to the week as physical demand offset speculative short selling. The pattern of intra-day highs being made in Asia or Europe and then drifting lower in the U.S. for most of the week continues this morning as gold is now $10.00 off the high of $1,230.00 and silver is 25 cents off the high of $16.79.

Continue reading →

Market Insights – Platinum Remains The Strongest

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Sitting in while Roy Friedman is out, is Peter Aan, a Dillon Gage Metals Trader. Roy will return on Monday. Here are Peter’s Market insights:

Gold worked higher Thursday, giving a respectable test of the 1222.9 level I mentioned, but ended with an unconvincing mid-range close, and is little changed in early morning trading today. If we have a successful penetration of 1222.9, look for further movement to test the February 17th high of 1236.7. The overall trend is still down, however, and if this short-term rally fizzles, fresh lows should turn our attention once again to the January low of 1168.3.

Continue reading →

Market Insights – Gold Trending Higher This Morning

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Sitting in while Roy Friedman is out, is Peter Aan, a Dillon Gage Metals Trader. Here are his Market insights:

Gold is higher this morning after making new lows for this move on Monday and Tuesday. If the buying pressure persists, look for a test of the 1222.9 high (basis the April contract) from last week as our first resistance. If we penetrate that, look for further movement to test the February 17th high of 1236.7. The overall trend is still down, however, and if this short-term rally fizzles, fresh lows should turn our attention once again to the January low of 1168.3.

Continue reading →

Market Insights – Silver Could Test Friday’s High

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Sitting in while Roy Friedman is out, is Peter Aan, a Dillon Gage Metals Trader. Here are his Market insights:

Gold continues its downtrend, working into new lows for this move overnight, but some buying came into the market this morning. Support continues to be at the January low of 1168.3 (basis the April contract). Continue reading →

Market Insights for February 20

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Sitting in while Roy Friedman is out for two weeks, is Peter Aan, a Dillon Gage Metals Trader. Here are his Market insights:

Gold and the other metals got a shot in the arm from the release of the Fed meeting notes on Wednesday afternoon, but began to fall back early Thursday morning. Early action today shows some buying coming back into the market. Support continues to be at the January low of 1168.3 (basis the April contract).

Continue reading →

The Art Of Choosing A Refinery

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Refining precious metals safely and accurately is not for the novice. Refining is a multi-step process that begins with the use of heat around 1,948 degrees Fahrenheit for gold and even higher for metals such as platinum. Continue reading →

Market Insights – February 18, 2015

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Sitting in while Roy Friedman is out for two weeks, is Peter Aan, a Dillon Gage Metals Trader. Here are his Market insights:

Gold tumbled Tuesday as fears over the situation in Greece eased, negating the attempted rally from last week. Continue reading →

Market Insights – Monday, Feb 16, 2015

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Sitting in while Roy Friedman is out for two weeks, is Peter Aan, a Dillon Gage Metals Trader. Here are his Market insights:

Gold closed higher on Friday, but well off its daily high. Buying pressure was renewed in the overnight session and early trading today, but we remain within last Wednesday’s range. The market is still oversold, and the short-term trend remains down. A close above Wednesday’s high of 1238.7 (basis the April contract) would be the first sign that the trend may change. If prices falter and recent lows are taken out, we should continue to keep the Jan 2 low of 1168.3 in our sights.

Continue reading →

Market Insights for Friday, February 13, 2015

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Sitting in while Roy Friedman is out for two weeks, is Peter Aan, a Dillon Gage Metals Trader. Here are his Market insights:

Gold traded without much sense of direction on Thursday, with the entire range within Wednesday’s range. The fall from January’s high has brought the market to an oversold condition on the Bollinger Bands, and Thursday’s reluctance to work lower may reflect that oversold condition. Also, the fall of recent weeks is an approximate 50% correction of the uptrend from the November low. If the market wants to trend lower, the first notable support area is the Jan 2 low of 1168.30 (basis the April contract). On the bullish side, a penetration, especially on a closing basis, of this week’s high of 1245.90 would be the first solid indication that a new leg to the upside might be underway.

Continue reading →

The Market Gage – Greek & Ukrainian Headlines Sustain Gold

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Precious metal prices have tried higher since trading resumed yesterday as escalating tension in the Ukraine and speed bumps being hit over Greece’s debt negotiations with the ECB and IMF have brought buyers to the gold and silver market. China released terrible economic data yesterday as their exports fell by 3.30 percent while imports plummeted by 19.90 percent as the economic health of the world’s second largest economy continues to show weakness and will weigh on the global economy. Gold and silver, while off the overnight highs, continue to trade in positive territory this morning and silver is above $17.00 which is a welcome sign while platinum and palladium were not able to hold the rally and are trading below Friday’s settlement levels

The unrest mentioned above has U.S. equities trading lower this morning, while bonds continue to sell-off as the yield on the 10 year bond has risen 25 basis points and is back over 1.90 percent. Crude oil continues its recent recovery on a bullish report from OPEC as it has broken above $52.00. All things considered it is a bit unsettling that gold is only up $4.00 this morning. Silver is likely to be the leader this week from a technical perspective. The 50 and 100 day moving averages come in on either side of $16.75 where support should be strong while a break above the 10 day average at $17.30 could bring another test of $17.75.

Dillon Gage Metals’ 2015 Precious Metals Predictions

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From Coins to Conflict, International Wholesaler Offers Their Take on Several Key Issues Affecting the Precious Metals Marketplace in 2015

ADDISON, TEXAS (Jan. 13, 2015)—With the new year upon us, many investors and industry experts are offering their predictions for the 2015 precious metals forecast. Dillon Gage Metals, a leading international precious metals wholesaler, offers their take on several key issues ranging from general economic overviews and pricing to interest rates and geopolitical events.
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Digital Metals Launches Spots In A Box

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Simple Converter Box Delivers Real-Time Precious Metals Spot Pricing Directly to Businesses and Customers

Addison, TEXAS (Jan. 29, 2015)Spots in a Box can be used in a variety of business settings and customized for particular audiences. Continue reading →

Offered a Metric Ton “Deal”?

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Have you recently been offered or heard about special deals in gold dust or African, Hong Kong, Singapore gold?

You should know that these “deal opportunities” — measured in metric tons and coming from unknown circles — are commonplace in active markets like the one we are now experiencing. Continue reading →

Dillon Gage Names Exec. VP-Business Development

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Roy Friedman is an Authority in Precious Metals, Financial Markets

DALLAS, Jan. 12, 2012—Dillon Gage Metals, a division of Dillon Gage Incorporated of Dallas, has named Roy Friedman, a well-respected trader and commentator in the field of precious metals and global financial markets, as Executive Vice President of Business Development for the firm. Continue reading →