Precious Metals Commentary, Analysis and Statistics

By Peter Aan.

Markets are interconnected in many ways that are not always immediately obvious. The accusations by the EPA that VW may have rigged the software on some diesel models is thought to benefit gasoline cars. These cars tend to use Palladium in their catalytic converters more than Platinum, leading to some dramatic moves this week. Here’s what I see this morning:

Gold
The 1120.50 level (December contract) was able to hold on Wednesday, and we saw very strong buying yesterday. There’s no follow through today, however, and we are starting the morning moderately lower. The key for today and Monday is for Thursday’s low of 1129.50 to hold. If it does, we could see the bulls regroup and rally towards the August high of 1169.80.

Silver
Silver also managed to rally yesterday, but with only a fraction of the strength we saw in Gold. We are a little lower as I write this. If we can manage a thrust through Thursday’s high of 15.180 (December) especially on a closing basis, we could see a test and penetration of the 9-18 high of 15.435.

Platinum
Palladium followed through solidly to the upside yesterday and this morning, and remains the strongest metal of this group by a good margin. I would consider any pullback here to be a correction in a bull market for the time being.

Palladium
Palladium followed through solidly to the upside yesterday and this morning, and remains the strongest metal of this group by a good margin. I would consider any pullback here to be a correction in a bull market for the time being.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

By Peter Aan.

We’re seeing moderate strength in Gold and Silver this morning, despite some bearish signs earlier this week. Palladium is the star performer today, busting through recent highs. Here’s what I see now:

Gold
Tuesday’s weak close was a bearish sign, but buying has lifted prices moderately this morning. The action so far today is inside of yesterday’s range, and that low of 1120.50 (December) is important to hold. If it is breached, it could mean a slide down to the September low of 1097.70.

Silver
We got a bearish close in Silver also on Tuesday, but it’s hanging tough this morning. Another selloff from this area could trigger a trip down to the September low of 14.240 (December).

Platinum
Platinum was the weakest market on Tuesday, collapsing through the lows from early August. This sends us back to the monthly charts, where we see that the next major support level in this market is the 2008 low of 761.80. This is not to say that it will reach that level, but to say that there is no support level on the charts above 761.80.

Palladium
Palladium is on fire this morning, taking us to the highest level since mid-July. This brings it to an overbought situation, but the truth is that overbought markets sometimes just get more overbought, especially when they have good momentum. Stepping back from the chart to look at the bigger picture, there is not significant resistance until you get to much higher levels such as the 803.00 high from May. It’s been a long slide for Palladium since then, and we seem determined to begin climbing back up that ladder.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

By Peter Aan.

All metals but Silver are moderately lower this morning. Here’s what I see now:

Gold
Gold has pulled back this morning, but all of the action since last night is within Friday’s range. The bulls would not like to see a close below Friday’s low of 1126.9 (December contract). Despite the rise last week, we are still not significantly overbought. I continue to see movement towards 1147.30.

Silver
Silver is hovering around Friday’s close as I write this, and we have an inside day so far. I continue to favor movement towards 15.770 (December).

Platinum
Platinum is moderately weak this morning, after a bullishly confirming close on Friday. I continue to look for more strength in this market. A close today under 972.60 would be a black cloud on the bulls’ horizon, however.

Palladium
The range of Friday and today (so far) have been within Thursday’s range. A breakout of Thursday’s high (618.30 basis December) and low (594.40) will clue us in to further movement. I still favor higher prices and a test of 625.80.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

By Peter Aan.

Over the last four decades of watching the markets, I have noticed how often the initial reaction to a news event or report is wrong, or at least overdone. Such it was with the Fed announcement yesterday, where the initial reaction in many markets was short lived, and the markets either turned south or moderated their initial gains. The equity markets are overrun with bears this morning, while the precious metals markets have seen the bulls return. Here’s what I see now:

Gold
The strength we saw on Wednesday morning, after having second thoughts yesterday, has followed through nicely this morning, and we are approaching the resistance at 1147.30 (December contract) that I wrote about. If we can penetrate that level, the next resistance is a more important one at 1169.80, the August high. We have plenty of momentum now to the upside, and the market is not overbought, so the easiest path is to head higher.

Silver
Silver easily took out the short-term resistance levels I wrote about previously. It is overbought, but the trend is undeniable. We now have the August high of 15.770 (December) in our sights.

Platinum
Platinum has only a fraction of the strength we are seeing in Gold and Silver, but still seems to by trying to put in a triple bottom as discussed on Wednesday. A further confirmation of this would be a close above Wednesday’s high of 976.7 (October). If the bulls are successful, watch for a test of the resistance levels in the 1024.00 to 1038.50 area.

Palladium
We got a strong close on Wednesday above the 605.00 level I discussed. Today’s strength may put the market back on track to work towards a test of the 625.80 (December) high from August.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

By Peter Aan.

Markets of all stripes are as nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs as the Fed meets this week to ponder interest rates. The fireworks are expected to start Thursday at about 1:00 CST. Here’s what I see now:

Gold
Gold is showing substantial strength this morning, after failing to close below 1100.00 (December contract). If this strength does not dissipate during the trading day, we could see a close above Monday’s high of 1111.90, an early sign that the recent slump in prices has run its course. If we do start a new leg to the upside, the first resistance level that we will encounter is the 1147.30 level reached on September 1.

Silver
Silver is also strong, after a low volatility day yesterday. There is formidable resistance not far above us at the early-September highs in the 14.930 to 14.950 area. Beyond that—and the psychological 15.000 level–we have resistance at the August high of 15.770.

Platinum
Platinum is higher this morning, but with less enthusiasm that Gold and Silver. It’s possible that it may be trying to form a triple bottom with the July and August lows. On the other hand, we often see a market approach an obvious support or resistance, back away, and then turn right around and plow right through it. At any rate, a close above Tuesday’s high of 963.90 will be our first sign that a bottom may be forming.

Palladium
Tuesday saw Palladium flirting with a penetration of the August high of 605.00, but we are seeing some reluctance this morning. A close above 605.00 would be a strong signal in this market, which remains primarily a congested, sideways market.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

By Peter Aan.

Gold is hanging tough this morning, near Friday’s close, while the other metals are succumbing to selling pressure. Here’s what I see now: Continue reading →

By Peter Aan.

All four markets are moderately lower this morning and succumbing to selling pressure as this commentary was being written. Here’s what I see: Continue reading →

By Peter Aan.

The employment numbers that were released at 7:30 CST this morning showed fewer jobs added than expected, but other aspects of the report were more encouraging. Continue reading →

By Peter Aan.

The action Sunday night and early Monday shows little of the volatility that we’ve seen in recent weeks, except for Platinum, which is sharply lower this morning. Here’s my take as we begin the week. Continue reading →

By Peter Aan.

Here’s my take on the metals as we begin to close out a very interesting week in the financial markets. Continue reading →

By Peter Aan.

As equities seem stuck in a fall/soar/repeat cycle, the consensus in precious metals is consistent: lower prices. Continue reading →

By Peter Aan.

Nothing is constant except change. As I was writing commentary on these four markets this morning, by the time I got to the fourth one, the markets had rallied to the point where I had to return to the top to rewrite! Here’s what I see…for the moment, anyway. Continue reading →

By Peter Aan

Metals opened Sunday night close to unchanged from Friday afternoon levels, but found some buyers as we worked into Monday morning, although Platinum and Palladium began to slump. Continue reading →

By Peter Aan

One thing I look for on a bar chart when a bottom appears to be forming is a close above the high of the low bar. Continue reading →

By Peter Aan.

As the equities markets fall victim to the China Syndrome, the precious metals markets continue to follow through to the upside. Continue reading →

By Peter Aan.

As I write this late Monday morning, the metals have made a dramatic move to the upside. Let’s look at the current technical picture. Continue reading →

The employment report released this morning was close to estimates, and the initial response by the precious metals markets was bearish. Continue reading →

It’s probable that markets of all stripes will have an eye on the employment data being released Friday morning at 7:30 CST. Reaction to the report is often volatile, but sometimes the market quickly cools down. Continue reading →

By Peter Aan

Signs of the Times: Goldcorp, a major North American gold producer, cut its dividend due to weak gold prices, and stated that it would consider reconfiguring or partially closing mines if gold should linger below $1,000 for an extended period. Continue reading →

Two headlines caught my eye this week: “Prepare for gold prices to plunge…as low as $350” and “Forget about whether $100 silver is possible—how about $1,000”. Continue reading →

by Peter Aan

Gold
On Friday, Gold penetrated the July 20 low, but buyers lifted the market off of its low, and that buying pressure spilled over into today’s session, but then selling returned. Continue reading →

Gold

Gold crashed through the recent 1080.0 low, as discussed earlier this week. Like Sunday night’s selling spree, the market quickly found some buyers, Continue reading →

From Peter Aan, Senior Dillon Gage Trader

Gold

Gold is weak today, being drawn towards the panic low of 1080.0 from Sunday night’s opening. Continue reading →

Gold

Gold was hit with panic selling during the opening minutes Sunday evening, taking the August futures quickly down to a breath-taking 1080.0. Continue reading →

Industry Veteran Will Oversee Precious Metals Investment Services

ADDISON, TX (July 21, 2015) – Dillon Gage Metals, an international precious metals wholesaler, has announced that Walter Pehowich has joined the executive team. Pehowich will serve as the executive vice president of precious metals investment services and will work from the company’s New York City trading office.
Continue reading →

Precious metals continue to feel the weight of a rising USD as gold and company have moved lower throughout the week. With news on Greece and Iran behind us, the market has focused on Chair Yellen’s testimony before Congress which was quite upbeat and leaves no doubt that the FOMC intends to raise rates this year with many “experts” now calling for a quarter point hike in September and again in December.

The headline story for our market today is the Chinese Central Bank releasing their official gold reserves for the first time in 6 years. In 2009, China claimed to have reserves of 1,054 tonnes and today that figure is 1,658 tonnes. If this figure is correct, and there is already chatter that it is not accurate, it falls far short of market expectations. This figure puts Chinese reserves in fifth place behind the U.S., Germany, Italy and France. If this figure is accurate, it may signal that the Chinese Central Bank may be a buyer of gold in the short term as it prepares for a meeting with the IMF in the fall where it wants the IMF to include the Yuan as an approved global reserve currency. In the short term our corner of the market benefits from excellent physical demand as investors of all sizes are attracted by the lower price points.

My next commentary will be on July 27. Have a good weekend and upcoming trading week.

Roy

Roy

Precious metals resumed trading yesterday with a spike higher on the electronic trading platform, which briefly saw silver trade to a high of $15.95 in the spot market. Continue reading →

It has been a very volatile trading week in all markets, highlighted by a resurgence in our market, with extraordinary physical silver demand making this a week we all hope will continue for the foreseeable future. Continue reading →

Precious metals sold off sharply yesterday which resulted in the busiest trading day of the year for our corner of the market as physical buyers especially in silver took advantage of the drop below $15.00. Continue reading →

Two major headlines over the weekend. The first did not yield the results I expected for gold and company, while the second may have calmed fears and weighed on gold and company. Continue reading →

The first half of 2015 ended with a stellar day for our corner of the financial world as physical demand picked up sharply yesterday on a global level. The lower price points and ongoing concerns in Greece certainly had investors and traders seeking the diversity and security an investment in physical metal can offer. This morning finds good and slightly better than expected economic data out of the U.S. continuing, which is fueling a rally in the USD and sell-off in bonds which are weighing on gold and silver as they probe lower and re-test support at $1,165.00 and $15.50. The surprise of the day comes from palladium which rallied sharply during the Asia trading day and briefly traded above $700.00. A rumored large physical order got the market moving higher which may have forced buy stops to be elected on the electronic trading platform.

This morning finds palladium is still up $25.00 at $698.00 and it appears to be assisting platinum, which is up $11.00 at $1,091.00. With liquidity already decreasing in front of a long holiday weekend in the U.S., the rest of the week could bring fireworks as we will receive the June U.S Employment Report tomorrow and the market will continue to trade on Friday. Physical demand should continue to support the market on the dips towards $1,155.00, but a break below $1,150.00 in gold likely signals a revisit of the low $1,100.00s. Technical resistance from the 10-, 50- and 100-day averages, which are currently residing between the low $1,80.00s through low $1,190.00s, should be stiff, but a break above $1,200.00 could see shorts running to cover along with momentum buyers jumping in, so the rally could be significant.

Happy July 4th to all who celebrate and to everyone else have a good weekend. My next commentary will be on Monday.

Roy

As the trading week draws to a close, precious metals continue to probe lower as good U.S. economic data has been impressive and weighs on our market as the yield on the ten year bond is now at 2.46 percent. The uptick in physical demand with the lower spot prices has been impressive and the low volume being seen in the futures market would indicate the pace of speculative selling is slowing. These two factors would indicate, as we approach the lower end of the recent trading range, that a move back up may be in the cards for next week.

When trading began in Europe this morning, silver spiked lower, but held support at $15.50. It has since bounced and is currently at $15.80. As the June 30 deadline for Greece is just around the corner there is still no resolution on debt repayment. Another emergency meeting is scheduled for tomorrow as all markets await news early next week.

Have a good weekend,

Roy

Gold and silver moved lower yesterday with several factors weighing heavily as we move towards the lower end of the recent trading range. Here are the factors, in no particular order: silver’s failure to hold $16.00 was disappointing for the longs and brought speculative sellers back to the table, the situation in Greece appears a bit calmer as headlines would indicate progress is being made over debt repayment, and the USD moved higher as did rates with the yield on the 10-year bond again above 2.40 percent. The good news for our corner of the market is that physical demand picked up sharply on the dip as it continues to do, but the bad news may be that the bottom is not far off and a rally from here means demand will slow down as we move towards the middle or upper end of the trading range.

In a bit of a surprise yesterday, Fed Governor Powell said two rate hikes this year remain a possibility. If hawkish comments like this continue during July and August, the likelihood is the USD will strengthen and, during a period where many market participants are on vacation, gold and silver could be vulnerable to spikes lower as speculators increase short positions during a period where liquidity is not great. In the short term, I would expect the market to test $1,155.00 and $15.40 where I expect it to hold, at least initially. Resistance levels are not far away and gold should face plenty from $1,185.00 through $1,195.00 while silver can expect resistance from $16.05 through $16.15 and again as it approaches $16.50.

Trading resumed yesterday on a quiet note as China was closed for a holiday and all market participants waited for the latest news on Greece. While the potential for a default still exists and headlines are mixed, it does appear as a bit of progress was made today as the deadline for debt repayment draws closer. While gold traded steadily on Friday, it was unable to close above resistance at $1,205.00, which I thought was necessary to get this week off to a good start (for those rooting for higher prices). It appears that many short term position traders may have had the same view as gold’s failure to move higher overnight has brought sellers back to the market with gold now working its way through support which runs from the low $1,180.00s through the mid $1,170.00s.

Platinum and palladium are continuing their move lower this morning as palladium has fallen below $700.00 while platinum has fallen to a $120.00 discount to gold. Silver is the highlight this morning as it is up on the day despite its 3 siblings being sharply lower. News that speculative silver short positions continued to increase last week on the futures exchange while physical demand is increasing may indicate the “shorts” are growing nervous this morning as they look to lighten up. The gold silver ratio, which was at 75.00 last week, is now at 73.30. If the ratio continues to move lower, look for silver to take a run at $16.75 in the coming days.

The FOMC / Chair Yellen gave us a dovish report Wednesday afternoon, which brought a rally to our market that has continued as the USD weakened and interest rates moved lower. While it still appears a rate hike is coming this year and some voting members would actually support two hikes this year, it was comments about forward projections that all markets focused on. Specifically, the FOMC has lowered their target federal funds rate in 2016 and 2017, which means they foresee fewer rate hikes over the next two plus years. Chair Yellen made reference in her press conference to international economic conditions adversely affecting U.S. GDP in the coming years, in addition to making comments about inflation levels likely to not meet target levels.

Gold has been the leader of the pack as it has broken through $1,200.00 as many short positions have likely been covered along with a strong pick up in physical demand globally, but strong technical resistance still looms through $1,215.00. The news out of Greece continues to worsen as protestors have taken to the streets, which only adds to their economic woes. The IMF continues to take a hard stand, telling Greek officials that repayment must begin on June 30th, but the meeting that took place yesterday produced no results and another emergency meeting is scheduled for Monday. Today feels like a summer Friday, as volume is surprisingly light, but a gold close above $1,205.00 could set the stage for a break above resistance next week and a run beyond $1,225.00.

Have a good weekend,

Roy

Precious metals moved lower yesterday in light trading as the market was unable to build on Monday’s gains. Continue reading →

Precious metals begin the week with a bit of an economic surprise in that the recent run of strong U.S. data did not continue. Continue reading →

Precious metals traded quietly yesterday as decent physical demand may be getting the “shorts” nervous, but overall light volume kept our market in a narrow range. On the positive side for precious metals, we have crude oil sharply higher as it is back above $60.00 and the USD has weakened on the back of comments by President Obama who said the USD is too strong and Bank of Japan officials saying the Yen needs to rally. Lastly, the Euro is back above 1.13 as uncertainty about Greece’s proposal for debt repayment appears to be unsatisfactory.

On the negative side, we have rising interest rates with the yield on the U.S. ten year bond now at 2.47 percent. In addition, a better than expected report on job openings in the U.S. raises the possibility for a strong June employment report which will support a rate hike by the FOMC.  This morning finds gold leading the charge higher as short covering / buy stops were hit when the market broke above the 10-day average at $1,183.25.  While silver is currently back above $16.00 it is not keeping pace as the gold / silver ratio now trades above 74.00.  Look for gold to face stiff resistance from the 50-day average at $1,196.50 through the 100-day average at $1,205.20.

Precious metals resumed trading yesterday while still digesting Friday’s very strong U.S. employment data as discussion and speculation about the timing of a rate hike overshadows our market. On Friday morning, N.Y. Fed President Dudley said that labor market improvement, higher wage compensation and rising inflation must continue in order for him to support a rate increase.  While it appears the FOMC is determined to raise rates this year, I continue to think there is enough uncertainty in our economy, and certainly the global economy, that a rate increase this year will be a single event, likely to be in September and perhaps most importantly likely already built into the market.

Overnight, China released data that shows their economy will continue to need further stimulation as their exports declined for a third straight month while their imports declined for a seventh straight month.  The import data could weigh on base metals which could bring additional pressure to precious metals.  The most recent Commitment of Traders report showed speculative long positions on the exchange continued to decline while speculative short positions continued to increase. This may indicate the trading range of recent months is likely to continue as shorts may be poised to cover their positions and take profits in the support range from $1,155.00 through $1,140.00.

Despite a weakening USD, dovish comments by Fed Governor Tarullo, and an urging by the IMF that the FOMC hold off any rate hike(s) until 2016, precious metals continued to probe lower yesterday as nearby support levels were breached. This morning’s highly anticipated U.S. employment report for May was a shocker by how strong it was. Economic consensus was for 225,000 new jobs being created in May, but data showed that 280,000 jobs were created which is the best showing since last December. The data also included upward revisions for job growth in March and April. As expected, the USD is rallying sharply, bonds are selling off with the yield on the 10-year bond now above 2.40 percent, crude oil and most other commodities are sharply lower as talk of a rate hike sooner rather than later gains momentum yet again.

<p>Our market is lower across the board but certainly not in a free fall as much of the speculative selling and long liquidation may have been done earlier in the week. Gold is bouncing a bit off the intraday low of $1,162.10 as physical demand is picking up. Look for support in the mid-$1,150.00s with a break below $1,150.00 likely signaling that a test of $1,125.00 will be seen. Silver, which has traded below $16.00 earlier this morning, is back above that level as physical demand is very strong.

<p>Have a good weekend,

<p>Roy

Precious metals firmed up yesterday, but considering that the Euro jumped from the low 1.09s to the high 1.11s, the move higher in our market was not very impressive.  Dovish comments from FOMC members and the ongoing issues with Greece and their debt payments provided the support. This morning finds precious metals lower across the board as we continue to look for direction. Despite sluggish economic data continuing this week, interest rates are moving higher which is likely weighing on our market. 

The yield on the 10-year U.S. bond has jumped over 3 percent this morning.  The yield, which was moving lower just a few days ago, is now at 2.33 percent and follows a global sell-off in bonds which began yesterday. Support for gold and silver continues to be found in the low $1,180.00s and at $16.50 where we continue to see a sharp increase in physical demand.  That same physical demand slows down considerably as we probe either side of $1,200.00 gold and above $17.00 on silver.  Keep an eye on platinum as it is trading at an $80.00 discount to gold and could be a “good buy”.