American Eagles Sales as of 9/3/15

The following chart includes the year to date totals from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on September 3 and the amount of change since our last report on August 28, 2015

Gold
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 8/27/15
One oz.
433,500
433,500
29,000
29,000
Half oz.
27,500
55,000
1,500
3,000
Quarter oz.
30,500
122,000
2,000
8,000
Tenth oz.
69,500
695,000
11,500
115,000
Total
561,000
1,305,500
40,500
120,000
Silver
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 8/27/15
One oz.
32,495,000
32,495,000
1,000,000
1,000.000

Fireworks Possible This Friday

By Peter Aan.

Action is subdued this morning, but we should see the brief, monthly fireworks Friday morning (7:30 CST) as the employment numbers are released. Here’s what I see now:

Gold
Gold has rallied reluctantly since Monday, but is a little lower this morning. I still favor lower prices, with the caveat that a close above 1146.00 (December contract) will signal a move towards the recent high of 1169.80.

Silver
We have had relatively subdued action in Silver since my Monday commentary, and it is a little lower this morning. I still look for lower prices, but if it closes above Thursday’s high of 14.745 (December), a trend change to the upside is signaled.

Platinum
Monday morning’s selloff in Platinum didn’t have legs, and the market recovered somewhat. I still favor higher prices here, but a close below Monday’s low of 995.60 (October) will signal a change another change in trend, and movement towards the late-August low of 970.30.

Palladium
Palladium extended its run to the upside on Monday, but has pulled back. To keep this rally alive, we need to avoid a close below 569.0 (December), which is not far below where we are as I write this. Such a close should send us back down towards the recent low of 519.20. If we can resist such a close, then we should see movement towards the resistance levels at 605.00-625.80.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Platinum Dips This Morning

By Peter Aan.

The action Sunday night and early Monday shows little of the volatility that we’ve seen in recent weeks, except for Platinum, which is sharply lower this morning. Here’s my take as we begin the week. Continue reading →

Extreme Volatility This Morning In Precious Metals

By Peter Aan.

Nothing is constant except change. As I was writing commentary on these four markets this morning, by the time I got to the fourth one, the markets had rallied to the point where I had to return to the top to rewrite! Here’s what I see…for the moment, anyway. Continue reading →

Precious Metals Continue Seeking the Upside

By Peter Aan.

As the equities markets fall victim to the China Syndrome, the precious metals markets continue to follow through to the upside.

Gold
Gold is solidly higher this morning, reaching the highest levels since July 20. A few more days of this type of action could bring us to an overbought indication on the Bollinger Bands, a condition we haven’t seen since mid-June. Again, this market has no chart resistance until you get to much higher levels, so higher prices seem likely.

Silver
New highs for this move were also made in Silver. I continue to look for movement towards the July 13 high of 15.900 (September) over the coming weeks. This market is overbought on the Bollinger Bands for the first time since mid-May, but this is the only bearish cloud on the horizon that I see.

Platinum
Platinum took out the 995.70 and 999.70 levels (October) I discussed earlier, further confirming its bullishness. We are approaching an overbought situation, but higher prices are still expected. Chart resistance is at much higher levels.

Palladium
Palladium worked higher, as expected, but still seems timid relative to the other metals. I continue to watch the resistance level at the August 3 high of 626.55 (September). Once past that, look for a test of the July 23 high of 641.50.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Precious Metals Make Dramatic Upswing

By Peter Aan.

As I write this late Monday morning, the metals have made a dramatic move to the upside. Let’s look at the current technical picture.

Gold
The Intraday action in Gold has taken us to the highest level since July 21. As I said last week, a close today (or later this week) above 1104.90 will be a bullish sign. If the bulls do take charge, there is no significant resistance on the chart until much, much higher price levels.

Silver
Silver has the strongest chart of this group, reaching the highest levels since July 15. We now look to be on track to work towards an eventual test of the July 13 high of 15.900 (September)

Platinum
On Friday, Platinum closed above the 956.80 (October), setting the stage for higher prices. Today’s strong rally has me expecting a test and penetration of recent highs at 995.70 and 999.70. Like the Gold, significant resistance on the charts is much higher than these levels.

Palladium
Palladium is the most reluctant bull in this group, but it did manage to close above the 604.00 (September) level mentioned last week. Higher prices now look probable, and the first resistance level to watch is the August 3 high of 626.55. Once past that, look for a test of the July 23 high of 641.50.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Employment Numbers Turn Precious Metals Bearish

The employment report released this morning was close to estimates, and the initial response by the precious metals markets was bearish.

Gold
Gold, which had shown some strength during the night, dropped about $9.00 initially upon release of the report this morning, then found some buyers. This still leaves us still clearly within the range of recent weeks, but not far above the 1079.20 level I mentioned earlier this week. I continue to see a close above 1104.90 (December contract) as a strong bullish sign, and a penetration of Friday’s low of 1079.2 as a sign that new lows are likely.

Silver
Silver has worked timidly higher through the week, and is holding up better than the gold. The charts still show a congested, range-bound pattern for the last few weeks. I continue to consider a penetration of Friday’s high of 14.970 (September) as a strong bullish sign, but another test of recent lows cannot be ruled out.

Platinum
On Tuesday, Platinum meekly peeked into new lows for this move, but refused to carry through, and the action since then has been contained by Tuesday’s range. We are at the low end of that range as I write this, and I think another penetration is probable, barring a close above 956.80 (October).

Palladium
After making new lows on Tuesday, Palladium has worked a little higher. Last night we managed to trade above 604.00 (September), but we need a close above that level before we even consider calling a change in trend. A move to more new lows seems probable.

American Eagle Sales as of 8/6/15

The following chart includes the year to date totals from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on August 6th and the amount of change since our last report on July 30, 2015

Gold
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 7/30/15
One oz.
344,500
344,500
1,500
1,500
Half oz.
23,000
46,000
0
0
Quarter oz.
25,000
100,000
500
2,000
Tenth oz.
52,500
525,000
0
0
Total
443,000
1,012,000
2,000
3,500
Silver
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 7/23/15
One oz.
28,372,000
28,372,000
1,057,000
1,057,000

Gold’s Short Term Picture Neutral

It’s probable that markets of all stripes will have an eye on the employment data being released Friday morning at 7:30 CST. Reaction to the report is often volatile, but sometimes the market quickly cools down.

Gold
Gold continues in a trading range, with all the action so far this week contained in Friday’s large range. Although the long-term trends are still pointing south, the short-term picture could not be more neutral. I continue to see a close above 1104.90 (December contract) as a strong bullish sign, and a penetration of Friday’s low of 1079.2 as a sign that new lows are likely.

Silver
Yesterday, Silver came within 1.5 cents of the low for this move, as suggested by Monday’s commentary. The close showed some strength, however, and it is holding up well this morning. I continue to consider a penetration of Friday’s high of 14.970 (September) as a strong bullish sign, but another test of recent lows cannot be ruled out.

Platinum
Platinum tested the 946.30 low yesterday, as suggested on Monday. It actually penetrated that low slightly, but closed in the upper part of the day’s range. The market today is quietly lower, and new lows seem probable. A close above Tuesday’s high of 956.80 (October) will be an early signal for higher prices.

Palladium
Palladium covered a lot of ground on Monday, taking out a few recent highs and making new lows for this move as well, settling somewhat lower for the day. It’s quiet and close to unchanged as I write this, and I see little reason not to look for lower prices. A close above 604.00 later this week would put that forecast in doubt.

Shipping/Storing Precious Metals Outside of the United States.

What you must know before deciding to ship precious metals outside of the United States.

While some folks prefer storage abroad, there are significant factors to consider and select the best option. For instance, many countries assess a tax or duty on incoming precious metals or bullion products. Also, many common carriers such as FedEx or UPS may have limitation on a per package insurance value, or may have a prohibition against shipping precious metals products. Before you package your assets and drop it in the mail do your due diligence.

Use our dealer or a customs broker to determine the exact limitations and regulations that impact the specific product and the country where you would like your package to be stored. Typically investors and corporations feel comfortable shipping through common carriers such as FedEx or UPS, as long as the packages are fully insured and have tracking information. Being well informed will save you from future financial headaches.

For example, because IDS Group operates depositories in the United States and Canada, we are often asked what is the best method to ship precious metals from the United States to Canada. We recommend the method that is fully insured and trackable, with adult signature required to receive the package. Always inspect the package when you receive it to make sure that no one tempered with it. The general rule for shipping precious metals across the Canadian border duty-free is that gold and silver must meet the following minimum purity requirements; Gold must be 99.9% pure while Silver and Platinum must carry a minimum purity of 99.5%. Metals which are less pure are subject to a 13% GST tax upon entry to Canada. It is important to note that these metals must be in bar, ingot, coin or wafer form. Coins must be issued by a government authority as legal tender. Other countries have different regulatory thresholds for purity and product restriction and if you do not review the requirements first you may find yourself paying too much or having your precious metals held up at customs.

Precious Metals Funds Report Large Outflows

By Peter Aan

Signs of the Times: Goldcorp, a major North American gold producer, cut its dividend due to weak gold prices, and stated that it would consider reconfiguring or partially closing mines if gold should linger below $1,000 for an extended period. Precious metals funds reported outflows at $1.2B, the largest weekly outflow since December 2013. Let’s look at the technical picture as we start the week.

Gold
Gold is moderately lower as I write this, and continues in a sideways pattern, still digesting the steep fall from the first half of July. I continue to see a close above 1104.90 (December contract) as a strong bullish sign, and a penetration of Friday’s low of 1079.2 as a sign that new lows are likely.

Silver
Friday’s close was near the middle of the trading range, and this morning we are somewhat lower. A penetration of Friday’s high of 14.970 (September) would be decidedly bullish, but if Friday’s low of 14.510 is pierced, I look for a probable move through the recent lows.

Platinum
The 999.70 high (October) of recent weeks should still be watched as a signal for higher prices, but this morning’s action is lower, and Friday’s low has been taken out. Lower prices, and a test of the mid-July low of 946.30 seems possible.

Palladium
Does Palladium even know that it’s a precious metal? It’s often at odds with the other three, and today is showing impressive strength. It’s still a sideways, congested market, though, and like the others, will only look bullish when it can trade above the range of recent weeks. If today’s close is strong, we could see movement later this week towards the July 23 high of 641.50. If today has a weak close, we could slump down towards the recent lows.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Gold Buoyed by U.S. Employment Cost Index Report

Two headlines caught my eye this week: “Prepare for gold prices to plunge…as low as $350” and “Forget about whether $100 silver is possible—how about $1,000”. There’s no shortage of shocking headlines, but the reality for the foreseeable future is probably somewhere between $350 gold and $1,000 silver.

Gold
Gold worked lower since my last commentary, until this morning when it started trending sharply higher, buoyed further by the release of the U.S. Employment Cost Index report. This gives us an outside day, and a strong close will have us looking for higher prices. A close today above 1104.90 would be a strong sign that some sort of bottom has been put in.

Silver
Silver is also forming an outside day, and the tone of the chart is a little more bullish than Gold. We have already pierced the July 23 high of 14.960 (September contract), so a strong close will have me looking for higher prices next week. If we do work higher, the first resistance to watch in the coming weeks is 15.900 from mid-July.

Platinum
Platinum also has formed an outside day today, but the current price is close to yesterday’s close, so the picture here is a bit more neutral. If buyers come in, watch the July 23 high of 999.70 (October contract). A penetration of that level will be a strong sign for higher prices.

Palladium
Palladium is the only metal in this group that is not forming an outside day. Intraday, we have taken out the 610.0 level (September) I mentioned earlier this week, giving the chart a bearish tone. In the absence of a strong close today, I continue to look for lower prices next week, with a probable test of the July 20 low of 595.0.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

American Eagle Sales as of 7/30/15

The following chart includes the year to date totals from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on July 30th and the amount of change since our last report on July 23, 2015

Gold
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 7/23/15
One oz.
343,000
343,000
32,000
32,000
Half oz.
23,000
46,000
2,000
4,000
Quarter oz.
24,500
98,000
2,000
8,000
Tenth oz.
52,500
525,000
4,000
40,000
Total
443,000
1,012,000
122,000
84,000
Silver
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 7/23/15
One oz.
27,315,000
27,315,000
2,942,000
2,942,000

A Quiet Tone Across Precious Metals

Gold
Gold traded in a narrow range yesterday, an inside day, and doesn’t seem to be invigorated this morning. A penetration of Monday’s range (1104.90 to 1088.0, basis the December contract) may signal an end to this congestion.

Silver
Silver has a situation similar to Gold. Monday was a quiet day, and a penetration of that day’s range (14.740 to 14.495 in the September contract) may signal the next significant move.

Platinum
The tone here is quiet, also. I continue to view a penetration of 999.7 (October contract) as a signal for higher prices, and 969.1 for lower prices. A penetration of either number on a closing basis would be stronger than an intraday penetration.

Palladium
I continue to watch for a penetration of 641.5 (September) as a clue to higher prices. If we move lower and 610.0 is pierced, that will set us up for a test of the July 20 low of 595.0.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Test of Gold’s Friday Low Possible

by Peter Aan

Gold
On Friday, Gold penetrated the July 20 low, but buyers lifted the market off of its low, and that buying pressure spilled over into today’s session, but then selling returned. Bottom line? A test of Friday’s low seems probable. A close today in the upper part of the range would put that forecast in doubt.

Silver
Recent action in Silver is similar to Gold. A test of the recent low is the most obvious scenario.

Platinum
Platinum continues to consolidate on a short-term basis. A penetration of 999.7 (October contract) is still the number to watch for a signal for higher prices. If Friday’s low of 969.1 is penetrated on a closing basis, we could be in for a test of the July 20 low of 946.3.

Palladium
Palladium is also treading water on a short-term basis. Continue to watch the 641.5 recent high (September contract) and the 595.0 low for the next clue as to trend direction.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Gold Crashes Thru Recent Low

Gold

Gold crashed through the recent 1080.0 low, as discussed earlier this week. Like Sunday night’s selling spree, the market quickly found some buyers, and found equilibrium at a level well above its extreme low, but still much lower than yesterday’s close. In the days ahead, be suspicious of any rallies, and wait for a daily close above the high of the low day before looking for something meaningful to the upside.

Silver

Silver took out the 14.49 level, as suggested in my last commentary. Lower prices and more new lows are the obvious expectation here, and a test of that 14.10 level mentioned on Wednesday seems possible in the coming days. Look for a daily close above the high of the low day to signal an end to this leg of the bear market.

Platinum

Platinum has been consolidating for the last few days, but yesterday’s failed rally attempt points to more new lows. A penetration of yesterday’s high of 999.7, especially on a closing basis, will identify the July 20 low of 946.30 (October contract) as a significant bottom. A penetration of 946.30 will signal a continuation of the bear market. Long-term market support levels are much lower at 761.80.

Palladium

Yesterday’s failed rally ended in a lower close, and that selling pressure has spilled over into today. Watch these two levels for clues to the next intermediate-term move: the high from Thursday at 641.50 and the July 20 low of 595.0 (September contract). If 595.0 is taken out, we will turn our attention to the 555.90 low from 2012.

American Eagle Sales as of July 23

The following chart includes the year to date totals from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on July 23rd and the amount of change since our last report on July 16, 2015

Gold
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 7/16/15
One oz.
311,000
311,000
43,500
43,500
Half oz.
21,000
42,000
1,000
2,000
Quarter oz.
22,500
90,000
1,000
4,000
Tenth oz.
48,500
485,000
2,500
25,000
Total
321,000
778,000
82,000
150,000
Silver
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 7/16/15
One oz.
24,495,000
24,495,000
0
0

Precious Metals Still In A Slump

From Peter Aan, Senior Dillon Gage Trader

Gold

Gold is weak today, being drawn towards the panic low of 1080.0 from Sunday night’s opening. It’s oversold, but oversold markets often get even more oversold, so it is likely that we will see a further test of 1080.0, and a probable penetration. One number to keep in mind: 1086.65. That represents a 50% retracement from the 1999 low to the 2013 high. There’s nothing magical about the number, but markets often have turning points at this retracement level.

Silver

Silver is also down today, but showing less pressure than the gold. A test and penetration of the 14.49 low from Monday (September contract) seems likely here. There actually is a support level at 1410.0 from last December, although the market closed higher that day, which may reduce the importance of that number. Looking long-term, major support is at much lower levels. Currently only a close above 14.98 will give the charts a glimmer of bullishness.

Platinum

Platinum is also down today, and seems likely to make a better test of this week’s low of 946.3, basis the October contract. Currently, only a close above 997.20 will signal a possible end to this bear market.

Palladium

Palladium is the only precious metal that seems to be trying to work higher. Yes, we are sharply lower today, but we have not yet penetrated yesterday’s low, and that higher close yesterday was notable. If today’s action penetrates yesterday’s low of 599.35 (September contract), new lows for this move seem to be in the cards. If yesterday’s high (630.40) is taken out, we just might be able to start something meaningful to the upside.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange

Gold Hit with Panic Sell Last Night

Gold

Gold was hit with panic selling during the opening minutes Sunday evening, taking the August futures quickly down to a breath-taking 1080.0. The bleeding moderated quickly, however, and the market found an equilibrium somewhat above 1100, but still heavily in negative territory. The most important aspect of the recent plunge is that it brings us to the lowest level in several years. You have to go back to early 2010 to find lower gold prices. We are extremely oversold—even the monthly chart is at its Bollinger Band low—so expect some volatile swings. Historically, gold has been a good long-term value when it is at or below the low of the previous four calendar years, a condition that we haven’t seen since the late 1990s, at a much lower price point. The 1080.0 level now forms an obvious support point. With the damage done recently, the market may be drawn to this level like a magnet.

Silver

Silver also fell to new lows, the lowest price for this metal since 2009 on the monthly charts. It’s also oversold, but lower prices are the obvious expectation. With chart resistance much higher, we should be suspicious of any rally.

Platinum

Platinum plunged Sunday night like gold, and also found enough buyers to lift its head off the mat. We have reached the lowest prices since 2008, when the market bottomed at 761.8. That’s quite a bit lower than current prices, and we are oversold, but there is no long-term chart support between here and there.

Palladium

Even Palladium, often the odd man out, could not resist falling to new lows. Long-term, Palladium has held up a little better that the others, and we are beginning to approach the 2012 low of 555.90. Lower prices seem likely here over the coming days and weeks.

Peter Aan joined Dillon Gage in 1983, and is currently a metals trader for our metals division. He is the author of numerous articles for Futures magazine and Stocks and Commodities magazine. He is the author of The Relative Strength Index: A Comprehensive Research Report and a co-author of Trading Tactics: A Livestock Futures Anthology, published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Dillon Gage Metals Names Walter Pehowich Executive Vice President

Industry Veteran Will Oversee Precious Metals Investment Services

ADDISON, TX (July 21, 2015) – Dillon Gage Metals, an international precious metals wholesaler, has announced that Walter Pehowich has joined the executive team. Pehowich will serve as the executive vice president of precious metals investment services and will work from the company’s New York City trading office.
Continue reading →

Rising USD Continues to Impact Precious Metals

Precious metals continue to feel the weight of a rising USD as gold and company have moved lower throughout the week. With news on Greece and Iran behind us, the market has focused on Chair Yellen’s testimony before Congress which was quite upbeat and leaves no doubt that the FOMC intends to raise rates this year with many “experts” now calling for a quarter point hike in September and again in December.

The headline story for our market today is the Chinese Central Bank releasing their official gold reserves for the first time in 6 years. In 2009, China claimed to have reserves of 1,054 tonnes and today that figure is 1,658 tonnes. If this figure is correct, and there is already chatter that it is not accurate, it falls far short of market expectations. This figure puts Chinese reserves in fifth place behind the U.S., Germany, Italy and France. If this figure is accurate, it may signal that the Chinese Central Bank may be a buyer of gold in the short term as it prepares for a meeting with the IMF in the fall where it wants the IMF to include the Yuan as an approved global reserve currency. In the short term our corner of the market benefits from excellent physical demand as investors of all sizes are attracted by the lower price points.

My next commentary will be on July 27. Have a good weekend and upcoming trading week.

Roy

Roy

American Eagle Sales as of July 16, 2015

The following chart includes the year to date totals from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on July 16th and the amount of change since our last report on July 10, 2015

Gold
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 7/10/15
One oz.
267,500
267,500
27,500
27,500
Half oz.
20,000
40,000
1,000
2,000
Quarter oz.
21,500
86,000
1,500
6,000
Tenth oz.
46,000
460,000
4,000
40,000
Total
321,000
778,000
34,000
75,500
Silver
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 7/10/15
One oz.
24,495,000
24,495,000
0
0

U.S. Econ News Shows Surprising Weaknesses

A surprisingly weaker than expected reading on U.S. retail sales yesterday again raises the question about the health of the U.S. economy and raises concern that consumers will go into hibernation if the FOMC raises rates later this year as expected. While physical demand has slowed a bit this week, the pace of buying has been impressive, but gold and its friends’ failure to rally on the retail sales data and physical demand was a surprise and disappointment. This morning finds conflicting economic data contained within the U.S. industrial production report as a sharp decrease in auto manufacturing was offset by a sharp increase in oil and gas mining. This again raises the question of the auto industry cutting back due to slowing consumer demand. On the back of the Greece and Iran news discussed in Monday’s commentary we also have a stronger USD to deal with and the combination continues to pressure our market and most commodities.

This morning finds gold and silver breaking below $1.150.00 and $15.00 as the Euro again trades below 1.10. Look for physical demand to pick up today with the lower price points, but if it does not materialize it is unlikely we will hold support in the low $1,140.00s and at $14.70. Chair Yellen is scheduled to testify before Congress shortly and her comments could certainly move the market in a hurry this morning.

Depository 101

The question of whether or not to own precious metals is always followed by a logistical dilemma – if I buy it – where would I store it? For some, home storage is certainly an option. But when the volume and security risk becomes a serious concern what should you consider in locating a safe and convenient private depository. Here are a few considerations:

  1. Access
  2. Security
  3. Insurance
  4. Trust
  5. Cost

Access

Making the decision to move your physical precious metals out of your house or safe deposit box is a big decision primarily because home storage offers instant access to your metals. But between safety and insurability concerns, many investors turn to private depositories. As more and more banks turn investors away for precious metals storage, there are many private storage options. In considering a private storage option look for a location that is accessible by multiple means and is otherwise centrally located for ease of transportation. Also, review storage agreements closely to determine the turnaround time for transferring or accessing your metals.

Security

Always visit the depository prior to making a decision to send your metals out or requesting delivery to an unfamiliar place. While you may not be an insurance expert, you can learn a lot from a visual inspection of the facilities. Ask questions about how the facility was constructed, what level of security is the vault, what other security measures are implemented – like 24/7 continuous monitoring, motion and vibration sensors and other multi-redundant measure to keep your assets secure.

Insurance

Review insurance limitation and exclusions carefully and always ask what is the declared value is intended to cover. While many places purchase insurance from the likes of the Lloyds of London and the affiliates, some depositories may be self-insured up to a certain amount. Remember, your insurance is only as good as the company that insures you.

Trust

Another reason to visit the facility before making a decision to store at a private depository is an opportunity to meet the people who work and run it. A lot can be learned about the operations and the integrity of the place by spending some due diligence time at the place. Ask for references, while most depositories will not reveal who their clients are, they may direct you to a source or find mutual contacts in the metals industry. Ask whether the depository is an affiliate of another established market participant. In other words – do your due diligence not just on the physical aspects of the building and the security protocols but also the people who run it.

Cost

In selecting a depository, storage fees may vary quite a bit. Some may charge based on the value of your precious metals – in which case the fees will fluctuate as the metals market moves. Some facilities may charge you a flat rate, like renting a safety deposit box. Determine which option works for you and always ask about any other charges, such as out-fee or any transaction fees you may incur.

At IDS Group depositories the customer’s assets are stored off balance sheet and are fully insured through a policy underwritten by an insurance provider. We can ship your metals to you, fully insured if you ever want to take physical possession.

News Out of Greece Continues To Impact Precious Metals

Precious metals resumed trading yesterday with a spike higher on the electronic trading platform, which briefly saw silver trade to a high of $15.95 in the spot market. The move higher was short lived as silver and its cousins were back to trading at Friday’s closing levels rather quickly. The market moving news this morning is the agreement in principal of a bailout for Greece and the tentative deal with Iran that will limit their nuclear development in exchange for a lifting of the United Nations embargo.

The market’s reaction has been a stronger USD, higher interest rates as bonds move lower, higher equities and lower commodity prices. On the surface it would appear to be a week where our market will again probe lower, and this may be what I am writing about on Friday, but this morning already shows signs of last week’s big increase in physical demand continuing and if that is the case we may just hold on the probes lower and Friday’s commentary could see me writing about the explosive short covering rally that many have been talking about as speculative short positions continue to grow.

Volatile Precious Metals Trading Week

It has been a very volatile trading week in all markets, highlighted by a resurgence in our market, with extraordinary physical silver demand making this a week we all hope will continue for the foreseeable future. Following the mid-week lows, our market continued moving higher yesterday as the IMF lowered its forecast for global growth. Given the conflicting economic data we continue to receive this week in the U.S. and the IMF forecast, I continue to think the FOMC will raise rates only once this year and it will come closer to yearend, perhaps even in December.

This morning finds a somewhat calmer precious metals market as we trade near yesterday’s closing prices on lighter summer Friday volume. The big news this morning is that Greece and its neighbors in the EU and IMF appear to have reached an agreement that will keep Greece in the EU. In addition, the carnage in the Chinese stock market appears to be over for the moment, which has helped calm fears for equity traders. The noticeable reaction this morning is a sharply higher U.S. stock market and a sharp selloff in bonds with the 10-year yield back to 2.40 percent. Physical demand should continue to support the dips, but short sellers may be looking at adding to positions in front of the 10-day averages at $1,166.10 and $15.53. A break above those levels could see us testing $1,185.00 and $16.00 in a hurry.

Have a good weekend,

Roy

American Eagle Sales as of July 9

The following chart includes the year to date totals from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on July 9th and the amount of change since our last report on June 25, 2015

Gold
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 6/25/15
One oz.
240,000
240,000
53,500
53,500
Half oz.
19,000
38,000
1,500
3,000
Quarter oz.
20,000
80,000
3,500
14,000
Tenth oz.
42,000
420,000
4,000
40,000
Total
321,000
778,000
77,500
144,000
Silver
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 6/25/15
One oz.
24,495,000
24,495,000
4,413,000
680,000

Silver Drop Inspires Busiest Trading Day of 2015

Precious metals sold off sharply yesterday which resulted in the busiest trading day of the year for our corner of the market as physical buyers especially in silver took advantage of the drop below $15.00. The USD and bond market seem to be the “safe haven” at the moment as the ongoing situation in Greece and the collapse of the Chinese stock market have not pushed gold and silver higher. Instead, we have followed crude oil and the base metals lower as they have dragged most commodities down.

For those that did not hear it yesterday, the U.S. Mint has temporarily run out of 2015 silver Eagles as demand has surged. While it is difficult at best to call the bottom of any market, the demand for silver this week, which continues this morning, may signal that the bottom, at least for the short term, may have been seen. If we can hold the mid to upper $14.00s for a day or two, I would expect the speculative short positions to begin covering which could see us trading back above $16.00 very quickly.

*** Please continue to check with our trading desk for current premiums as they can change quickly ***

Fire Assay versus XRF – What are the differences?

There is a lot of talk and confusion about the various methods to assay materials that contain precious metals. The method that has been used for hundreds of years is the fire assay.

Fire Assay:

Fire Assay, also known as cupellation is the industry standard for assaying precious metals. This destructive process analyses a sample from a homogeneous melt of the material to be analyzed. The sample along with Silver is wrapped in Lead foil and placed in a porous bone-ash cupel and melted. The Lead foil pulls the base metals into the cupel leaving a Gold and Silver dore bead. After treating the dore bead with Nitric acid to remove Silver from it, the remaining precipitate is dried and weighed to obtain the concentration of the precious metal. This is a time consuming process and typically takes about 5 hours to complete.

XRF/ X-Ray Fluorescence Spectroscopy:

X-Ray Spectroscopy is the process where the phenomenon of Fluorescence is used to determine the concentration of elements in a sample. Fluorescence is the phenomenon in which the absorption of a specific wavelength of energy (X-Rays) by a material results in a re-emission of radiation of a lower energy. This difference in energy is measurable and is characteristic of the atoms present in the material. The primary advantages of this method are that it is non-destructive and is very fast.

When is one used over the other? Typically larger lots (AU < 50 Oz’s. AG < 500 Oz’s) use fire assay process.

Should you request one over the other? Both forms are very accurate and are within .10% of each other but the fire assay adds at least 1 more day to complete lot.

Dillon Gage uses XRF most of the time due to its accuracy and speed of settlement for the customer.

Major Headlines Do Not Yield Expected Impact On Gold

Two major headlines over the weekend. The first did not yield the results I expected for gold and company, while the second may have calmed fears and weighed on gold and company.

  1. Greek voters loudly said “No” over the weekend as a firm line has now been drawn in the sand between Greece and their creditors. In addition, their finance minister has resigned this morning as turmoil within Greece and the EU continues to build.
  2. Secretary of State John Kerry said the U.S. and Iran have found the groundwork to build on and real progress has been made with regard to the future of Iran’s nuclear program.

Uncertainty brought buyers and higher prices to our market when trading resumed yesterday along with a stronger USD and a selloff in equities as a Greek exit from the Eurozone becomes a greater possibility. The early rally in our market was short lived however, and in early U.S. trading, gold and silver are back to $1,165.00 and $15.60 where they spent much of late last week. Platinum and palladium are both down $30.00 as a broad selloff in industrial commodities and base metals weigh heavily. In addition, crude oil is down over 4 percent this morning. While any headline that is Greece related has the potential to move our market, this week it “feels” like gold and silver could be vulnerable to the downside, as gold’s disappointing performance thus far is hard to explain. Keep a close eye on the USD as it should give the signal for where gold is heading in the coming days.

Precious Metals Physical Demand Jumped Yesterday

The first half of 2015 ended with a stellar day for our corner of the financial world as physical demand picked up sharply yesterday on a global level. The lower price points and ongoing concerns in Greece certainly had investors and traders seeking the diversity and security an investment in physical metal can offer. This morning finds good and slightly better than expected economic data out of the U.S. continuing, which is fueling a rally in the USD and sell-off in bonds which are weighing on gold and silver as they probe lower and re-test support at $1,165.00 and $15.50. The surprise of the day comes from palladium which rallied sharply during the Asia trading day and briefly traded above $700.00. A rumored large physical order got the market moving higher which may have forced buy stops to be elected on the electronic trading platform.

This morning finds palladium is still up $25.00 at $698.00 and it appears to be assisting platinum, which is up $11.00 at $1,091.00. With liquidity already decreasing in front of a long holiday weekend in the U.S., the rest of the week could bring fireworks as we will receive the June U.S Employment Report tomorrow and the market will continue to trade on Friday. Physical demand should continue to support the market on the dips towards $1,155.00, but a break below $1,150.00 in gold likely signals a revisit of the low $1,100.00s. Technical resistance from the 10-, 50- and 100-day averages, which are currently residing between the low $1,80.00s through low $1,190.00s, should be stiff, but a break above $1,200.00 could see shorts running to cover along with momentum buyers jumping in, so the rally could be significant.

Happy July 4th to all who celebrate and to everyone else have a good weekend. My next commentary will be on Monday.

Roy

Greek Headlines Briefly Impact Precious Metals

News over the weekend that talks broke down between Greece and its lenders sent gold and silver higher when trading resumed yesterday. Gold and silver briefly chipped away at resistance above $1,185.00 and $16.00, but it was short lived and in early U.S. trading gold, silver and platinum are back to Friday’s closing levels while palladium is down $8.00 at $670.00. The short and sweet on Greece is that debt repayment tomorrow is very unlikely. The government of Greece has imposed capital controls and closed the country’s banks through July 6. The citizens of Greece will have access to their deposits only by visiting an ATM machine where they will be limited to withdrawing 60 Euro per day. On July 5, Greece will vote on a referendum where they will decide what their future will be within the EU.

While it is not receiving nearly as much news today as Greece, stories are breaking that Puerto Rico is on the verge of default as it is unable to meet debt obligations tied to bonds that were sold to finance the government. Today brings us to the beginning of the “summer holiday season” and, while today may offer no indication of where prices are headed, I continue to think we will see increased volatility in July, August and beyond.

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Impressive U.S. Econ Data Weighs on Precious Metals

As the trading week draws to a close, precious metals continue to probe lower as good U.S. economic data has been impressive and weighs on our market as the yield on the ten year bond is now at 2.46 percent. The uptick in physical demand with the lower spot prices has been impressive and the low volume being seen in the futures market would indicate the pace of speculative selling is slowing. These two factors would indicate, as we approach the lower end of the recent trading range, that a move back up may be in the cards for next week.

When trading began in Europe this morning, silver spiked lower, but held support at $15.50. It has since bounced and is currently at $15.80. As the June 30 deadline for Greece is just around the corner there is still no resolution on debt repayment. Another emergency meeting is scheduled for tomorrow as all markets await news early next week.

Have a good weekend,

Roy

American Eagle Sales as of June 25

The following chart includes the year to date totals from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on June 25th and the amount of change since our last report on June 18, 2015

Gold
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 6/18/15
One oz.
186,500
186,500
12,500
12,500
Half oz.
17,500
35,000
500
1,000
Quarter oz.
16,500
66,000
0
0
Tenth oz.
38,000
380,000
2,000
20,000
Total
243,500
634,000
15,000
33,500
Silver
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 6/4/15
One oz.
20,226,000
20,226,000
680,000
680,000

Several Factors Weigh On Silver and Gold

Gold and silver moved lower yesterday with several factors weighing heavily as we move towards the lower end of the recent trading range. Here are the factors, in no particular order: silver’s failure to hold $16.00 was disappointing for the longs and brought speculative sellers back to the table, the situation in Greece appears a bit calmer as headlines would indicate progress is being made over debt repayment, and the USD moved higher as did rates with the yield on the 10-year bond again above 2.40 percent. The good news for our corner of the market is that physical demand picked up sharply on the dip as it continues to do, but the bad news may be that the bottom is not far off and a rally from here means demand will slow down as we move towards the middle or upper end of the trading range.

In a bit of a surprise yesterday, Fed Governor Powell said two rate hikes this year remain a possibility. If hawkish comments like this continue during July and August, the likelihood is the USD will strengthen and, during a period where many market participants are on vacation, gold and silver could be vulnerable to spikes lower as speculators increase short positions during a period where liquidity is not great. In the short term, I would expect the market to test $1,155.00 and $15.40 where I expect it to hold, at least initially. Resistance levels are not far away and gold should face plenty from $1,185.00 through $1,195.00 while silver can expect resistance from $16.05 through $16.15 and again as it approaches $16.50.

Silver Solos Higher This Morning

Trading resumed yesterday on a quiet note as China was closed for a holiday and all market participants waited for the latest news on Greece. While the potential for a default still exists and headlines are mixed, it does appear as a bit of progress was made today as the deadline for debt repayment draws closer. While gold traded steadily on Friday, it was unable to close above resistance at $1,205.00, which I thought was necessary to get this week off to a good start (for those rooting for higher prices). It appears that many short term position traders may have had the same view as gold’s failure to move higher overnight has brought sellers back to the market with gold now working its way through support which runs from the low $1,180.00s through the mid $1,170.00s.

Platinum and palladium are continuing their move lower this morning as palladium has fallen below $700.00 while platinum has fallen to a $120.00 discount to gold. Silver is the highlight this morning as it is up on the day despite its 3 siblings being sharply lower. News that speculative silver short positions continued to increase last week on the futures exchange while physical demand is increasing may indicate the “shorts” are growing nervous this morning as they look to lighten up. The gold silver ratio, which was at 75.00 last week, is now at 73.30. If the ratio continues to move lower, look for silver to take a run at $16.75 in the coming days.

FOMC Goes Dovish – Precious Metals Rally

The FOMC / Chair Yellen gave us a dovish report Wednesday afternoon, which brought a rally to our market that has continued as the USD weakened and interest rates moved lower. While it still appears a rate hike is coming this year and some voting members would actually support two hikes this year, it was comments about forward projections that all markets focused on. Specifically, the FOMC has lowered their target federal funds rate in 2016 and 2017, which means they foresee fewer rate hikes over the next two plus years. Chair Yellen made reference in her press conference to international economic conditions adversely affecting U.S. GDP in the coming years, in addition to making comments about inflation levels likely to not meet target levels.

Gold has been the leader of the pack as it has broken through $1,200.00 as many short positions have likely been covered along with a strong pick up in physical demand globally, but strong technical resistance still looms through $1,215.00. The news out of Greece continues to worsen as protestors have taken to the streets, which only adds to their economic woes. The IMF continues to take a hard stand, telling Greek officials that repayment must begin on June 30th, but the meeting that took place yesterday produced no results and another emergency meeting is scheduled for Monday. Today feels like a summer Friday, as volume is surprisingly light, but a gold close above $1,205.00 could set the stage for a break above resistance next week and a run beyond $1,225.00.

Have a good weekend,

Roy

U.S. Mint Eagle Sales as of June 18th

The following chart includes the year to date totals from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on June 18th and the amount of change since our last report on June 11, 2015

Gold
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 6/11/15
One oz.
174,000
174,000
18,000
18,000
Half oz.
17,000
34,000
1,000
2,000
Quarter oz.
16,500
66,000
1.500
6,000
Tenth oz.
36,000
360,000
2,000
20,000
Total
243,500
634,000
22,500
46,000
Silver
Coin Sales in oz. /#coins + from 6/4/15
One oz.
19,546,000
19,546,000
975,000
975,000

How Will FOMC Impact Precious Metals Today?

Precious metals moved lower yesterday in light trading as the market was unable to build on Monday’s gains. The weak platinum and palladium market appear to be weighing on gold and silver as well with platinum falling to a six-year low and trading at a $105.00 discount to gold.

Today is FOMC day, and while a rate hike today would be a shocker, the press release later today will likely address the committee’s current take on the recent upturn in economic data, its forecast for job growth, economic activity, and inflation, and perhaps even a comment on the ongoing problems within Greece as it relates to the IMF and Eurozone. I expect the statement to continue stressing that a rate hike decision will be data driven, but when we read between the lines I think the conclusion will be a single rate hike is coming this year sometime between September and December. As is always the case, a hawkish tone will rally the USD and pressure our market, while a dovish tone should bring a move higher. In the end, like you, I am rooting hard for any news that brings us direction and a new trading range.