Precious metals ran into a surging USD yesterday and as a result sold off sharply. While gold fell below the 200-day moving average at $1,216.00 and the 100-day average at $1,212.00, it did hold $1,200.00 which was a victory of sorts. Silver took a pounding and fell below $17.00, but as it has done so many times it rebounded on the back of a pick up in physical demand.

Yesterday’s surprisingly strong U.S. economic data came from housing starts which surged to a seven-year high. While a shocker, it may have been the result of builders locking in loans and beginning construction before rates move higher. This will be a closely watched economic release in four weeks, because if housing starts remain strong it will increase the likelihood for a rate hike by the FOMC in September. This morning finds gold and silver continuing to bounce but volume is light as we trade at $1,211.00 and $17.25. All eyes will be on the FOMC minutes which are scheduled to be released at 2:00PM EST. Comments about sluggish Q1 growth and expectations for Q2 should provide the hint for the FOMC’s plan for interest rates.

Gold and company recovered from early losses on Friday buoyed by weak economic data as gold settled above the 200-day moving average at $1,217.00, which technically points to further gains ahead. Silver continues to impress as it settled above $17.50 on good physical demand throughout the day. Trading resumed yesterday with good physical demand in the Asia Pacific market highlighted by reports of very strong demand in India as gold and silver have recorded intraday highs of $1,232.00 and $17.77.

Looking at the week ahead, all eyes will be on the Wednesday release of the FOMC minutes from their April meeting. On the back of a run of weak economic data. talk is growing that a rate hike could now be pushed off until 2016, which has weakened the USD and given life to our market. Confirmation of the FOMC’s concern about the state of the U.S. economy with a dovish tone in the minutes could propel gold beyond $1,250.00, while a surprisingly hawkish tone could see us revisiting $1,185.00 very quickly.

Precious metals continued to be supported yesterday by weak economic data as the U.S. Producer Price Index fell by .4 percent in April. This provided the fuel for gold to break above the 200-day moving average at $1,218.00 as it recorded an intraday high of $1,228.00. Silver had an equally impressive day as it broke above $17.50 for the first time in three months. With much of Europe on holiday yesterday, their return today to higher prices brought sellers to the market. In pre-U.S. trading, a large sell order on the electronic trading platform took gold below support at $1,215.00 as $1,210.60 in the active June futures contract is the current low.

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Gold and silver, as they have done the past few weeks, have traded on a steady tone for the first half of the week. Despite interest rates rising as the bond market sells off, the USD weakened a bit yesterday providing the fuel for our market to probe higher. On the encouraging side, physical demand continues to pick up despite gold and silver continuing to trade in a well-defined range. On the concerning side, overall volume is falling as ETF, Futures and OTC volume contract. This morning’s spike higher comes on the back of very weak U.S. economy data.

The closely watched retail sales report missed the target badly and further data showed that the prices U.S. consumers paid for goods imported into the U.S. fell for the tenth straight month. The continuation of weak data on the consumer side of the U.S. economy should put to rest any discussion of a rate hike by the FOMC in June and will severely impact what they can do in September unless there is a very significant change in consumer spending as the weather hopefully improves throughout much of the country. On the technical side, all eyes are on gold as it battles with very well defined resistance between $1,210.00 and $1,215.00. Silver continues to impress and perhaps a move towards $17.50 will give gold an added lift.

Precious metals closed last week holding most of the intraday gains as a result of the weak data contained within the Non-Farm Payroll report, which further reinforced the “markets” belief that a rate hike will not come in June. Besides the downward revisions in February and March job creation, hourly wages, which appears to be a figure the “committee” pays great attention to,  are not increasing at a pace that would bring the upside inflationary pressures to support higher interest rates. The trading week began yesterday on a steady tone as physical demand continues to pick up throughout Asia.  This may have been the result of a surprise cut in the one-year lending rate from the Chinese Central bank which continues to look for ways to stimulate a sluggish economy.

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As I discussed in the Wednesday morning commentary, our market again felt “heavy” and I was looking for lower levels. With the USD moving higher, bond yields moving higher globally and crude oil falling below $60.00 we did probe lower, but so far physical demand has been quite good on the dips and we have held in the mid-$1,170.00s and $16.20s.

This morning brought us the much anticipated Non – Farm Payroll report for April with the hope that one way or another it would be the catalyst for moving us outside of the current trading range. Unfortunately for precious metals traders and investors, the data brought little surprise, the economic consensus was spot on as 223,000 new jobs were created last month with the unemployment rate falling to a seven-year low at 5.40 percent. Although it is “yesterday’s news,” in a further sign of how weak the U.S. economy was and perhaps still is, first quarter job creation in February and March were again revised down. All in all we are left with gold and silver still stuck in a trading range and looking for direction.

Have a good weekend,

Roy

Last Wednesday, following weak economic data and a dovish FOMC statement, precious metals were unable to extend a rally that had finally broken above key resistance levels and sold off sharply on Thursday and Friday. Continue reading →

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Precious metals began the week yesterday on a steady note with a bit of physical demand throughout the Asia Pacific region. This was followed by another weak economic report from China as their Manufacturing Index came in lower than expected, setting the stage for further stimulus action from their Central Bank which brought about more buying. Today is a holiday in much of Europe, and as often happens, the decrease in liquidity brings volatility to our market.

Prices spiked up in early U.S. trading as speculative short covering was reported in the OTC market while buy stops on the futures exchange were elected above $1,185.00 and $16.50. As the recent trading ranges continue after the lower end held late last week, we still have a market that is looking for a directional leader. As gold has failed to provide that leadership, I would expect silver to give it a try this week. The week begins with support in gold at $1,175.00 and $1,165.00 while resistance stands at $1,192.00 and $1,210.00. Silver support stands at $16.35 and $16.15 while resistance can be expected at $16.75 and $17.00.

In retrospect, the inability of precious metals to continue the rally on Wednesday, following the very weak GDP report and benign FOMC statement, was certainly a sign that our market was running out of steam despite gold and silver breaking above resistance levels at $1,210.00 and $16.50. The rout began yesterday with recent long positions in gold being liquidated when it failed to hold $1,200.00, as an unexpected strong reading on U.S. employment hit our market hard when the Labor Department reported initial jobless claims had fallen to a 15-year low.

While the USD has continued to weaken the second half of this week, our market appears to be more focused on global interest rates which have spiked higher and have added pressure to our complex. With gold in the driver’s seat, we have quickly gone from attempting a further break out on the upside to now looking for support from physical buyers as gold has returned to the lower end of the recent trading range in the low $1,170.00s. As often happens, our market manages to stage a rally when it feels most vulnerable and that may yet happen again, but I would expect the short sellers to push us back towards $1,1150.00 before we talk about another look at $1,200.00.

Have a good weekend,

Roy

Precious metals continued to probe higher yesterday buoyed by two more weak economic reports. U.S. Consumer Confidence, which is a key indicator of the economy’s health, unexpectedly fell in April by over six percent and the closely watched Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s manufacturing survey also missed the mark by coming in lower than expected. The bottom line for precious metals traders and investors was that the USD weakened and our market moved higher. Today begins with another weak economic report but perhaps not a shock to the markets given the recent run of weak data. First quarter U.S. GDP rose just .20 percent verse the economic consensus which looked for a 1.00 percent gain as the USD is again probing lower which should further support our market.

Later today we get a statement from the FOMC as the two-day meeting concludes. I would expect some concession from voting members in today’s statement that economic data does not support a rate hike in June. The key will be any hint over the action that will be taken in September. If the committee acknowledges our economy is now facing a head wind it could set the stage for further weakness in the USD as the likelihood of a rate hike later in the year diminishes.

Precious metals ended last week on the ropes when gold failed to hold support in the mid-$1,180.00s as investors pushed U.S. equities to record highs. Trading resumed yesterday with a steady tone as several headlines over the weekend regarding Greece’s ongoing issues were followed by a story that the Chinese Central Bank may increase their bond purchases to include those issued by local governments in an effort to further stimulate their economy. The result was broad based buying throughout Asia which was followed by good buying in Europe.

This morning finds recent short sellers likely looking to cover as the rally continues with gold closing in on $1,200.00 and silver has spiked higher having just broken above $16.00. While the rally to begin the week is encouraging, it is yet to be seen if this is just another move within the recent trading range or resistance can be broken at the 100-day average in gold at $1,211.50 and $16.56 in silver. Keep a close eye on the market Wednesday afternoon as the FOMC meeting ends with a statement but no press conference with Chair Yellen.

Despite a continuation of mixed news, but with a bias towards weak economic data, gold and its cousins have not been able to rally and are beginning to feel like we are going to see lower prices. Ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting on the 28th and 29th the committee will be discussing weak readings on new home sales, manufacturing, durable goods and rising unemployment claims. From my perspective the June rate hike is off the table and a hike in September is far from certain.

Despite the data, which is supportive for precious metals as it has weakened the USD a bit,for the second half of this week our market feels vulnerable to the downside as overall volume remains low and physical demand, while picking up a bit the past few days, is not impressive. Look for gold and silver to test $1,175.00 and $15.50 where physical demand should begin to pick up and support the market. If we break below these levels it could be a quick ride down to $1,150.00 and $15.00.

Have a good weekend,

Roy

Not much has changed for gold and silver this week as the U.S. trading day begins with gold and silver continuing to pivot around $1,200.00 and $16.00, but currently below those levels. With growing concerns over the possible default and exit from the Euro by Greece along with increased tension in the Middle East as U.S. and coalition warships track Iranian boats suspected of carry weapons to Yemen, it is a bit surprising that gold has not performed better and broken through resistance above $1,210.00.

On the flip side, we have a market that is trading on low volume, platinum and palladium continue to move lower and this combination is likely to empower short sellers to pressure gold and silver. If the recent pattern continues, we can expect physical demand to pick up and support gold in the low to mid $1,180.00’s while silver could test $15.50.