In the last couple of days, as the price of Gold failed to break thru the $1,300 dollar level that everyone was looking for, we witnessed the CME Gold open interest decline by over 40,000 contacts. That’s an indication there is a good amount of longs giving up on their investments.
The price of Gold is retreating from its most recent highs as Bond prices across the globe decline. It seems that no matter how many new longs come into the marketplace, the price of Gold just can’t break out into new territory.
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The price of Gold knocking on the door of $1,300 as the spec longs continue to add on to their positions. Helping the price of Gold this morning is a weaker U.S. Dollar and lower bond yields across the globe.
D.C. Spotlight
Lawmakers are back from their thanksgiving recess to debate the proposed tax bill.
This past Friday when we broke thru the $1,290 level, we witnessed 28,000 new longs come into the market. On Monday, with a $ 20 dollar sell off, only 9,000 contracts headed for the exits. I have a concern now that the market could be vulnerable with what I view as an overbought spec long position in the marketplace.
Since we described the bond and treasury market in Friday’s Market Gage, I thought it would be appropriate to describe how the CBOE VIX (volatility index) works and why we follow this index so closely.
VIX is the ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility index, which shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility. It is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options.
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The price of Gold still handcuffed in its twenty dollar trading range. It seems that all markets are waiting to see if the House and Senate can agree on a tax plan. The jury is still out on that outcome, and until it’s settled I don’t expect any significant movement in the price of gold.
The dollar and bond prices virtually unchanged this morning.
The following chart includes the year to date totals for 2017 from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on November 16th. The chart also shows the change in sales from 11/9/2017 which we reported on November 10th.
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Just before I was ready to send out this report, I received a call from an old friend who is a prominent Wall Street trader. He said “I believe that the equity markets have reached the sun and have already started their return to earth.
The price of Gold back to the middle of the most recent trading range, recovering a little this morning from Friday’s sell off. Mid-morning this past Friday, we saw selling in the Bond market sending the Ten Year Treasury yields from 2.33 percent up to 2.4 percent.
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The price of Gold in limbo awaiting to see what happens with the two different tax plans being presented by the House and Senate. Gold still struggling to pass the next level of resistance at $1,290. Not helping much, is a slightly weaker U S Dollar and higher Treasury yields.
The following chart includes the year to date totals for 2017 from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on November 9th. The chart also shows the change in sales from 11/2/2017 which we reported on November 3rd.
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As I said in previous reports, it seems that the traders holding long positions in gold and silver (as shown in last week’s commitment of traders reports) show, that they are content with their long positions.
DALLAS, TX (Nov. 7, 2017) – International Depository Services Group (IDS), a privately-owned subsidiary of Dillon Gage Metals, opens Texas’ first precious metals depository, International Depository Services of Texas. Continue reading →
Walter Pehowich is off today. The Insights are compiled by Dillon Gage analysts.
As we start the week, attention is diverted off of America’s shores.
Over the weekend, oil hit a 2-year high as Saudi Arabia arrested four ministers and 11 princes in an anti-corruption scandal. Oil’s rise in turn boosted precious metals, a bit. Continue reading →
The October jobs creation number comes in at 261,000 and the unemployment rate is now at a seventeen year low of 4.1 percent.
The price of Gold seems to be stuck in the mud, trading for the most part between $1,270 and $1,280 dollars.
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The following chart includes the year to date totals for 2017 from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on November 2nd. The chart also shows the change in sales from 10/26/2017 which we reported on October 27th.
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The price of Gold and Silver is in positive territory despite a stronger U.S. Dollar and higher Treasury yields.
The Gold ETF investors seem content with holding on to their long positions, as little if any movement out of those funds has been seen in the last two weeks.
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Interesting trick (and for some a treat) announced today.
We’ve been discussing the cryptocurrency phenomenon in The Market Gage a lot here lately, and here’s a little something that will show you why. This morning, CME Group, the world’s leading derivatives marketplace, announced it will launch bitcoin futures in the fourth quarter of 2017, pending all relevant regulatory review periods.
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A busy week ahead, with a slew of corporate earnings, job reports and the newly released charges against the President’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort.
Now to this morning’s markets news.
The price of Gold up a little and off the lows experienced last week. A slightly weaker U.S. Dollar and softer Treasury yields helping keep the price of Gold afloat, at least for the time being.
The price of Gold under continued pressure this morning as the U,S, Dollar continues to climb. Currently the U.S. Dollar is trading over the 95 handle, highest level in over three months.
The following chart includes the year to date totals for 2017 from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on October 26th. The chart also shows the change in sales from 10/19/2017 which we reported on October 20th.
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Hard to make a case for higher Gold prices when the Ten-Year Treasury Yield is sitting at a seven-month high of 2.46 percent. Nonetheless, no one has pulled the rug out from under the Gold price. Still behind the curtain is North Korea and that situation has little chance of going away any time soon.
Metal prices under pressure this morning as strong selling of all four metals is seen overnight in Japan.
Japanese stocks rallied 239 points after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s snap election victory. The Nikkei, Japan’s stock market, is now up for fifteen straight days. Japan investors, like here in the States, are finding the equity markets very attractive.
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Dillon Gage representatives were excited to be a part of the U.S. Mint’s 2017 Forum, “Numismatics – The Road Ahead,” held at the Mint’s D.C. headquarters last week. Continue reading →
Walter Pehowich is on vacation this week. Market Insights are prepared by senior Dillon Gage analyst.
The bulls continue to run wild, smashing records on Wall Street, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit another all-time high Thursday, topping out at 23,163.04. Continue reading →
The following chart includes the year to date totals for 2017 from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on October 19th. The chart also shows the change in sales from 10/12/2017 which we reported on October 13th.
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Walter Pehowich is on vacation this week. Market Insights are prepared by senior Dillon Gage analyst.
After starting the week strong, several factors combined to pressure gold prices.
The shine was taken off the yellow metal on Monday when Bloomberg reported that Stanford University economist John Taylor could have the inside track on Federal Reserve chairmanship as he had “made a favorable impression on President Donald Trump” last week. Continue reading →
Walter Pehowich is on vacation this week. Market Insights are prepared by senior Dillon Gage analyst.
Last week saw gold prices ping a three-week high on Friday, pushing right back past the $1,300/oz. threshold once again this year on softer than anticipated Consumer Price Index Numbers. December futures contracts held just higher at $1,303/oz.
The price of Gold hitting some resistance around the $1,300 dollar level. We believe that will this continue for a short period of time before heading higher once again.
A weaker dollar and softer treasury yields helping fuel the rally in Gold.
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The following chart includes the year to date totals for 2017 from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on October 12th. The chart also shows the change in sales from 10/5/2017 which we reported on October 6th.
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Fed minutes released just released. Here are the highlights:
A tight trading range seen overnight in the price of Gold as the market awaits the minutes from the last Fed meeting to be released today at 2pm EST.
The Dollar Index is lower this morning approaching the 93 level once again helping Gold stay on the high side of its most recent trading range.
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The Chinese back from their holiday last week were seen buying gold overnight, that along with a weaker dollar has given the yellow metal a boost.
Controversies and rhetoric out of Washington continue to give everyone a migraine.
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The CBOE VIX index, the gage that illustrates how much risk is anticipated in the implied volatility of the S&P 500, is now at an historic, all-time low. Continue reading →
The following chart includes the year to date totals for 2017 from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on October 5th. The chart also shows the change in sales from 9/28/2017 which we reported on September 29nd.
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The price of Gold is holding up remarkably well as the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq are setting new records every day.
Gold is seen benefiting from a weaker U.S. Dollar and softer Treasury yields this morning.
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The price of gold still under pressure this morning as the Dollar continues to head higher. All bad news for the longs as the Equity Market, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are ready to set another historic record level today.
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The price of gold up this morning as the U.S. Dollar and Treasury yields are seen lower this morning.
Even though the Gold EFF is a not as big as the futures market the inflow continues ten out of the last eleven days. There seems to be investors out there that are dead set on adding Gold to their portfolios.
The following chart includes the year to date totals for 2017 from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on September 28th. The chart also shows the change in sales from 9/21/2017 which we reported on September 22nd.
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The price of Gold is really taking it on the chin this morning as the yield on the Ten-Year Treasuries breaks thru the 2.30 level. Just a few weeks ago, the yield on the Ten-Year was approaching the 2 percent level. No wonder Gold has been declining with this kind of rally in Treasury yields. Combined with a much stronger dollar, it creates perfect recipe for a much lower Gold price.
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CNBC is reporting North Korea’s foreign minister on Monday accused the President of declaring war, saying that gives the rogue regime the right to take countermeasures. That includes the right to shoot down strategic U.S. bombers, even when they are not flying in North Korean airspace.
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Gold ETF inflows continue to dominate the Gold arena as over 100,000 ounces were added to the funds. That’s five out of the last six days that have seen an increase in holdings.
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Let’s chat about where I stand
There is nothing I enjoy more than a healthy debate on the future of the markets. Recently I’ve been told by some, that an investment in precious metals is a bad decision. But let’s look at the numbers. Up until Wednesday of this week, the price of Gold outperformed the Dow in 2017, 14 percent to 13 percent. I consider that a home run for the long term Gold investor.
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The following chart includes the year to date totals for 2017 from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on September 21st. The chart also shows the change in sales from 9/14/2017 which we reported on September 15th.
Gold dropped to its lowest level in over three weeks after the Fed meeting yesterday.
The Fed put their anticipated policy changes on a bulletin board for all to see and the Bond market overreacted to what the Fed is saying.
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All eyes on the Federal Reserve today ahead of the conclusion of its two day meeting. A decision on interest rates and Balance sheet reduction to be released today at 2 pm eastern time.
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U.S. equity markets following the path of Global markets this morning as the Dow is poised to make another new all-time high.
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Yesterday, North Korea launched its second missile in less than a month and created panic buying in Gold from the Far East. Air raid sirens could be heard all over Japan as a North Korean ballistic missile flew over head and landed in the Pacific ocean.
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The following chart includes the year to date totals for 2017 from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on September 14th. The chart also shows the change in sales from 9/7/2017 which we reported on September 8th.
Walter Pehowich will be back with Friday’s commentary, today’s comments come from a senior Dillon Gage Staffer.
After gold reached a one-year high last Friday, profit-taking opportunities have followed, leading the yellow metal into downward technical correction territory late Tuesday. As of this morning, gold prices dropped about $10 more and are hovering at $1,321. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped up over 60 points, leading a rally in the equities market.
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The price of gold taking it on the chin this morning after we see a strong recovery in Treasury Yields and in the Dollar index, after experiencing a multi-year low at 91.01 on Friday.
At the time of this report Equities are up over 100 points attracting money back from safe haven investments last week.
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Gold hits a one-year high after U.S. Ten-year Treasury yields approach the 2 percent level. The dollar also heading in the same direction trading as low as 91.01 overnight.
After hitting these lows, both products have recovered a bit, bringing the price of Gold off the highs of $1,362.40 in the December CME futures contract.
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The following chart includes the year to date totals for 2017 from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on September 7th. The chart also shows the change in sales from 8/31/2017 which we reported on September 1st.
The U.S. Dollar at a 32 month low this morning boosting the price of Gold.
Weakening dollar causing the price of Gold to break thru a solid of support at the $ 1348 level in December. The question remains looking at how far the dollar has declined can we get a sustained rally in the price of Gold?
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No surprise that the price of gold is virtually unchanged this morning after seeing the dollar and Treasuries unchanged.
Overnight the Ten Yield Treasury yield got down to 2.054 percent and the price of Gold didn’t budge. Not a good sign for the longs, as at that level the price of gold should be trading much higher according to a prominent Wall Street Gold Trader.
A less than expected August jobs report released this morning rallied spot gold nine dollars. Revisions to the June and July unemployment numbers (now down 40,000 jobs) also had an effect.
Yesterday, ADP released their Private Sector jobs report for August and the private payrolls increased by 237,000. Good news for the Equity market as they were only expecting an increase of 185,000.
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The following chart includes the year to date totals for 2017 from the U.S. Mint as of 5pm on August 31st. The chart also shows the change in sales from 8/24/2017 which we reported on August 25th.
One can only imagine how much panic buying in gold came out of the Far East Monday night after North Korea shot a missile over Japan. Even our equity markets sold off into triple digits on the news.
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Strong buying out of the Far East overnight brought the price of Gold to a 9 month high.
Both the dollar and treasury yields heading south in a big way, fueling the price of gold this morning.
